Cuộc khảo sát của Reuters: Gần 60% các nhà kinh tế dự đoán rằng Nhật Bản sẽ tăng lãi suất một lần nữa vào tháng 7 năm nay

Reuters released the latest survey results on Thursday, showing that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates only once this year, most likely to 0.75% in the third quarter. Among the 39 analysts who predicted the specific month of rate hike, 59% expect it to be in July. In January this year, the Bank of Japan raised short-term interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis, reflecting the Bank of Japan's belief that Japan is moving towards sustainable inflation target of 2%. Survey: Bank of Japan may raise interest rates only once this year. According to the Reuters survey released on Thursday, most economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates only once this year, most likely to 0.75% in the third quarter. Analysts also predict that the median wage increase in wage negotiations this year is 5%, close to the nearly 33-year high last year. This is a positive signal for the Bank of Japan, which may continue to raise interest rates. Amid global central banks cutting interest rates to boost the economy and cope with the uncertainty of U.S. President Trump's tariff policy, the Bank of Japan is one of the few central banks pushing for rate hikes, despite Japan's interest rates remaining at extremely low levels. In a survey conducted from the 12th to the 18th, all 61 economists interviewed predicted that the Bank of Japan would keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting on March 18th to 19th, with only a few (19 out of 61) believing that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points at least once in the next quarter, bringing the interest rate to 0.75%. Over 65% of respondents (38 out of 58) predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 0.75% in July or September. The Japanese forward market expects another 35 basis point rate hike before the end of the year, meaning there is a 69% probability of two 25 basis point rate hikes. Junki Iwahashi, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, said the Bank of Japan needs to confirm the extent of wage increases in wage negotiations this year, as well as the impact on small and medium-sized enterprises, while also examining the effects of the January rate hike. 59% of economists estimate a rate hike in July. Among the 39 analysts predicting a specific month for the rate hike, 59% (23) chose July, 15% (6) chose June, 5 each chose April and September. The median interest rate forecast for the end of the year is 0.75%, and 1.00% by the end of March 2026. Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, pointed out that July seems to be a likely time for the next rate hike, as it has been six months since the January meeting and also after the Japanese Senate elections. Will the unwinding wave of yen carry trade reappear? It is worth noting that if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates again this year, the market is concerned that the unwinding wave of yen carry trade that caused a global stock market and cryptocurrency market crash on August 5 last year may happen again, putting pressure on risk assets such as BTC. After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at the end of July last year, the market triggered an unwinding wave of yen carry trade as the interest rate spread between the yen and the U.S. and Europe started to narrow, causing turmoil in the global financial markets. On August 5 last year, BTC dropped to $48,900, the S&P 500 index plummeted 3% to its largest single-day drop since September 2022, and the Nikkei 225 index plunged more than 12%. However, Marcin Kazmierczak, COO of RedStone Oracles, recently analyzed that the impact may be gradual rather than immediate, depending on how central bank policymakers balance domestic inflation targets and global market stability. Related reports: Yen continues to depreciate for six days! Analysts warn: Bank of Japan may be forced to raise interest rates tomorrow, 155 is a critical point Spring struggle in Japan! Unions call for a 6-7% wage increase, inflation fears may accelerate, 90% of experts expect a rate hike this week China's government bond yields hit a new low! Bloomberg warns: fears of deflationary spiral following Japan's footsteps 'Reuters Survey: Nearly 60% of economists estimate Japan will raise interest rates again in July this article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential Blockchain news media in Khối.