A carta aos acionistas de Buffett esconde mistérios: está à espera que o mercado de ações colapse? Receio de que o Bear Market se repita e que a bolha da Internet seja devastadora.

Warren Buffett released the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter on the 22nd, closely followed by an observer for forty years, interpreting that Buffett "seems to be waiting for a US stock market crash" and will then use Berkshire's cash reserves to prepare for a Bear Market. (Background: Buffett's latest shareholder letter did not mention Cryptocurrency! Cash reserves reached a new high, but still prefers to invest in stocks) Dubbed the "Stock God," Warren Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway's cash level continues to rise, reaching $334.2 billion at the end of 2024, higher than the $325.2 billion in the third quarter, setting a new historical high. This rise is mainly due to Berkshire's net sale of $134 billion worth of stocks in 2024, including Apple and Bank of America. In response to some comments that Berkshire's cash holdings are too high, Buffett clarified the operation of Berkshire's cash reserves in the annual shareholder letter released on the 22nd, in addition to reviewing the performance of 2024. Buffett stated in the letter that Berkshire still plans to invest most of its funds in stocks (mainly US stocks) and will never prefer to hold cash equivalents, choosing instead to own or invest in quality companies, and emphasizing his confidence in the "long-term prosperity" of the US economy. Stock God Observer: Buffett is waiting for a US stock market crash. However, according to Market Watch, Bill Smead, founder and chairman of asset management company Smead, who has closely followed Buffett and Berkshire for forty years, interpreted Buffett's latest shareholder letter, believing that Buffett "seems to be waiting for a stock market crash" and will then use Berkshire's cash reserves to enter the market. Smead stated on Tuesday that although Buffett did not provide much useful guidance in the letter, he did indicate that there are currently no "notable" buying opportunities. Berkshire will continue to increase its cash reserves, indicating that Buffett is prepared for "severe fluctuations" in stock prices. "Reading between the lines... unless there is a significant market downturn, he will not be interested in buying." Stock market disaster may be comparable to the dot-com bubble or the financial crisis. Smead also stated that the "severe fluctuations" Buffett is waiting for are not just ordinary stock market retractions. He believes Buffett is preparing for a Bear Market, with a decline comparable to the 49.1% drop from the peak to the bottom after the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2000, or comparable to the declines during the Bear Market period of 2007-2009 or the late 1960s and early 1970s. According to Smead's observations, the biggest threat to the stock market at present is inflation, and a series of policies including tariffs implemented by Trump are exacerbating inflationary pressures. He warned that a stock disaster like a flood is imminent, and advised investors to build a common stock portfolio as an "ark." "When years of Bear Market cause a large number of holders of high-growth stocks and passive holders of the SP 500 to discard, this portfolio will come into play."