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The article warns about the potential risks of cryptocurrency-related legislation, the "GENIUS Act" and the "CLARITY Act", suggesting that this could lead to a financial crisis, economic harm, and increased unemployment. A lack of regulation could repeat the disasters of the 1930s, benefiting a few while harming the masses.

TRUMP

On August 4, 2024, the Nobel Prize winner in Economics published an article titled "The Currency Crisis of Crypto Assets is Approaching" to warn about the disaster risks brought by stablecoins and the lax regulation of encryption!

The article points out that the traditional advantages of the American financial system lie in strict transparency requirements and risk control, which are the cornerstone of economic stability established by the rules set after the Great Depression in the 1930s.

However, the relaxed regulation of stablecoins in the "GENIUS Act" poses hidden dangers: it allows issuers to invest reserves in high-risk assets without setting capital adequacy measures, which could lead to a run and repeat the mistakes of the 1929 financial crisis.

What is more dangerous is that the CLARITY Act may revive 1920s-style rent-seeking and fuel the use of Crypto Assets in illegal transactions. Although a few may become rich as a result, this "watering and fishing" legislative tendency of the U.S. Congress could lead to catastrophic consequences for the world, facing a new round of financial panic, massive unemployment, and the destruction of wealth.

**Original Content:**

Under the emerging legislative framework in the United States, the country is gradually becoming a major center for Crypto Assets-related activities. However, Congress's eagerness to cater to the demands of the crypto industry poses a serious risk of economic damage to both the United States and the world, including mass unemployment and wealth destruction.

Washington, D.C. - The United States has passed an important digital currency bill (the "GENIUS Act"), and another bill (the "CLARITY Act") has also been approved by the House of Representatives, awaiting further review. This positions the United States to potentially become a major hub for Crypto Assets activity, and as Donald Trump stated, to become the "Crypto Capital of the World." However, those supporting this new legislation should think carefully.

Unfortunately, the crypto industry has gained enormous political influence through means such as political donations, to the extent that the original intention behind the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act is to prevent reasonable regulation. The final outcome is likely to be an epic cycle of boom and bust.

**The historical advantages of the U.S. financial markets are being weakened**

Historically, the main advantage of the US financial markets compared to those of other countries has been the higher level of transparency, which allows investors to better understand risks and make more informed decisions. In addition, the US has established strict rules on conflicts of interest, requiring fair treatment of investors (including protecting their assets through appropriate custodial arrangements) and imposing limits on the risk exposures of many financial institutions.

This framework was not formed by chance, nor is it purely a product of market competition, but rather stems from wise laws and regulations formulated in the 1930s (after a major disaster) and has been gradually improved in a reasonable manner since then. These rules are the main reason why the United States is able to conduct business activities easily, bring new ideas to market, and raise funds for various innovations.

Any entrepreneur, even in an emerging industry such as Crypto Assets, may resist these rules, claiming they are "unprecedented." However, the risks brought by financial innovation not only affect individual investors but can also impact the entire financial system. The core goal of regulation is to protect the overall economic security.

**Lessons from History: The Cost of Financial Crises**

Many major economies, including the United States, have paid a painful price for this. Over the past 200 years, they have experienced severe financial turmoil and even systemic collapse. Among them, the stock market crash of 1929 triggered the Great Depression, leading to the closure of numerous banks and the destruction of the wealth and dreams of millions of Americans. Avoiding a repetition of history has always been an important goal for policymakers.

However, the "GENIUS Act" has not advanced this goal. The Act establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, an emerging and important digital asset. Stablecoins are issued by U.S. and foreign companies and claim to be pegged to a specific currency (such as the U.S. dollar) or commodity to maintain value stability. For investors active in Crypto Assets trading, stablecoins are very practical as they allow them to enter and exit specific Crypto Assets without relying on traditional (non-Crypto) financial systems. We can foresee that many institutions, including non-financial companies like Walmart and Amazon, will have huge demand due to their desire to bypass existing payment systems.

**The Business Model of Stablecoins: A Potential Disaster**

The business model of stablecoin issuers is similar to that of banks: they hold user funds at zero interest (according to the law) while investing reserves to earn interest rate spreads. As a result, issuers have a strong incentive to allocate part of their reserves into high-risk assets in pursuit of higher returns. This will become a major source of vulnerability, especially when issuers are approved by state-level agencies with lax regulations.

From the perspective of systemic risk, the main flaw of the "GENIUS Act" is its failure to effectively address the inherent risks of stablecoin runs, as it prevents regulators from establishing strict capital, liquidity, and other safeguards.

So, when a stablecoin issuer (whether domestic or foreign) encounters difficulties, who intervenes? And with what authority can they prevent issues from spreading to the real economy like in the 1930s?

If only the ordinary bankruptcy law applies to bankrupt stablecoin issuers, investors will inevitably bear heavy costs, including lengthy delays in fund recovery.

This will almost inevitably exacerbate the run on other stablecoin issuers.

Furthermore, if one of the goals of the "GENIUS Act" is to maintain the status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency and boost demand for US Treasury bonds (as its supporters claim), then why does Article 15 of the Act allow foreign issuers to invest their reserves in their own (high-risk) government debt, even if that debt is not denominated in US dollars?

It is foreseeable that foreign regulators will tacitly allow or even encourage such arrangements. However, this means that the so-called "stablecoin" will be primarily supported by non-dollar assets while bearing fixed dollar debts.

What consequences will this arrangement face once the US dollar appreciates significantly? The answer is obvious: a liquidity crisis, panic of insolvency, and destructive runs.

**Greater Trouble: The Threat of the CLARITY Act**

If a version of the CLARITY Act is passed in the Senate, greater troubles will follow.

This legislation will allow the largest scale of conflicts of interest and self-dealing since the 1920s.

In addition, due to the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act potentially fostering the use of stablecoins (and even broader Crypto Assets) in illegal financial transactions, national security will also face significant concerns.

**Conclusion: Who benefits, who suffers?**

The United States may truly become the "World Crypto Capital," and under its emerging legislative framework, a small number of wealthy individuals will undoubtedly become even richer.

However, Congress is eager to pave the way for the encryption industry, which exposes the United States and the whole world to the real risk of a repeat of financial panic, potentially resulting in severe economic damage - including massive unemployment and the destruction of wealth.

*Source:

*Author Biography: **Simon Johnson (**2024 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences laureate, former Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, currently a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, academic director of MIT's "Shaping the Future of Work" initiative, and co-chair of the CFA Institute Systemic Risk Council. He co-authored "Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity" with Daron Acemoglu (PublicAffairs, 2023).**)*

文章警告加密货币相关立法《GENIUS法案》和《CLARITY法案》的潜在风险，认为这可能导致金融危机、经济损害和失业加剧。监管的松懈可能重演1930年代的灾难，少数人获益而大众受害。

2024年诺贝尔经济学奖得主8月4日发表文章《加密货币危机即将来临》来提示稳定币和加密宽松监管带来的灾难风险！

文章指出，美国金融体系的传统优势在于严格的透明度要求和风险控制，这些1930年代大萧条后建立的规则正是经济稳定的基石。

然而，《GENIUS法案》对稳定币的宽松监管埋下隐患：允许发行商将储备金投入高风险资产，却不设资本充足率等保障措施，一旦发生挤兑恐重蹈1929年金融危机的覆辙。

更危险的是，《CLARITY法案》可能复活1920年代式的利益输送，并助长加密货币在非法交易中的使用。尽管少数人将因此暴富，但美国国会这种"放水养鱼"的立法倾向，或将使全球面临新一轮金融恐慌、大规模失业和财富毁灭的灾难性后果。

**原文内容：**

在美国新兴的立法框架下，这个国家正逐渐成为加密货币相关活动的主要中心。然而，国会急于迎合加密行业的诉求，却让美国和全世界面临严重经济损害的风险，包括大规模失业和财富毁灭。

华盛顿特区——美国已经通过了一项重要的数字货币法案（《GENIUS法案》），而另一项法案（《CLARITY法案》）也已获得众议院通过，正等待进一步审议。这使得美国有望成为加密货币活动的主要枢纽，甚至如唐纳德·特朗普所言，成为“世界加密之都”。但支持这些新立法的人最好三思而行。

不幸的是，加密行业通过政治捐款等手段获得了巨大的政治影响力，以至于《GENIUS法案》和《CLARITY法案》的设计初衷竟是阻止合理监管。最终的结果很可能是一场史诗级的繁荣与崩盘循环。

**美国金融市场的历史优势正在被削弱**

历史上，美国金融市场相较于其他国家的主要优势在于更高的透明度，这使得投资者能更深入地理解风险并做出更明智的决策。此外，美国还制定了严格的利益冲突规则，要求公平对待投资者（包括通过适当的托管安排保护其资产），并对许多金融机构的风险敞口设限。

这一框架并非偶然形成，也非纯粹市场竞争的产物，而是源自1930年代（在一场重大灾难后）制定的明智法律法规，并在此后以合理的方式逐步完善。这些规则正是美国能够轻松开展商业活动、将新创意推向市场，并为各类创新筹集资金的主要原因。

任何企业家，甚至是一个新兴行业（如加密货币），都可能抗拒这些规则，声称它们“前所未见”。但金融创新带来的风险不仅影响个别投资者，更可能波及整个金融体系。监管的核心目标，正是保护整体经济安全。

**历史教训：金融危机的代价**

包括美国在内的许多主要经济体都曾为此付出惨痛代价。过去200年间，它们经历了严重的金融动荡，甚至系统性崩溃。其中，1929年的股市崩盘引发了大萧条，导致大量银行倒闭，数百万美国人的财富和梦想随之破灭。避免历史重演，一直是政策制定的重要目标。

然而，《GENIUS法案》并未推进这一目标。该法案为稳定币（一种新兴的重要数字资产）建立了监管框架。稳定币由美国和外国公司发行，声称能锚定特定货币（如美元）或商品以保持价值稳定。对于活跃于加密货币交易的投资者而言，稳定币非常实用，因为它能让他们在不依赖传统（非加密）金融体系的情况下进出特定加密资产。我们可以预见，包括沃尔玛、亚马逊等非金融企业在内的许多机构，都会因希望绕过现有支付系统而产生巨大需求。

**稳定币的商业模式：一场潜在的灾难**

稳定币发行商的商业模式类似于银行：它们以零利息（根据该法案）持有用户资金，同时将储备金投资以赚取利差。因此，发行商有强烈动机将部分储备金投入高风险资产以追求更高回报。这将成为一个主要的脆弱性来源，尤其是当发行商由监管宽松的州级机构批准时。

从系统性风险的角度来看，《GENIUS法案》的主要缺陷在于未能有效应对稳定币挤兑的固有风险，因为它阻止监管机构设定严格的资本、流动性等保障措施。

那么，当某家稳定币发行商（无论是国内还是国外）陷入困境时，谁来干预？又以何种权限阻止问题像1930年代那样蔓延至实体经济？

若仅对破产的稳定币发行商适用普通破产法，投资者将不可避免地承受沉重代价，包括漫长的资金追回延迟。

而这几乎必然加剧对其他稳定币发行商的挤兑。

此外，如果《GENIUS法案》的目标之一是维持美元作为全球储备货币的地位，并提振对美国国债的需求（如其支持者所言），那么为何该法案第15条允许外国发行商将储备金投资于本国（高风险）政府债务，即使这些债务并非以美元计价？

可以预见，外国监管机构将默许甚至鼓励此类安排。但这样一来，所谓的“稳定币”将以非美元资产作为主要支撑，却承担着固定的美元债务。

一旦美元大幅升值，这种安排会面临什么后果？答案显而易见：流动性危机、资不抵债的恐慌，以及破坏性的挤兑。

**更大的麻烦：《CLARITY法案》的威胁**

如果《CLARITY法案》的某个版本在参议院获得通过，更大的麻烦将接踵而至。

这项立法将允许自1920年代以来最大规模的利益冲突和自利交易。

此外，由于《GENIUS法案》和《CLARITY法案》可能助长稳定币（乃至更广泛的加密货币）在非法金融交易中的使用，国家安全也将面临重大隐忧。

**结论：谁受益，谁受害？**

美国或许真能成为“世界加密之都”，而在其新兴的立法框架下，少数富人无疑会变得更加富有。

但国会急于为加密行业铺路，却让美国和全世界暴露在金融恐慌重演的真实风险之下，随之而来的可能是严重的经济损害——包括大规模失业和财富毁灭。

*来源：

*作者简介：**Simon Johnson （**2024年诺贝尔经济学奖得主，曾任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家，现任麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院教授、麻省理工学院"塑造未来工作"计划学术主任，以及CFA协会系统性风险委员会联合主席。他与达龙·阿西莫格鲁（Daron Acemoglu）合著有《权力与进步：我们千年来的技术与繁荣之争》（PublicAffairs出版社，2023年）。**）*

Nobel Prize in Economics winner: Currency Crisis of Crypto Assets is coming!