The Federal Reserve (FED) reassesses economic impact, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 are uncertain.

1. Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

The Federal Reserve reassesses the economic impact of the new government, increasing uncertainty about the prospect of interest rate cuts

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve is reassessing the potential impact of the new government on the U.S. economy and inflation. Sources revealed that the Fed chairman expressed dissatisfaction with some officials' public comments, believing they have overly linked Fed policy changes to the new government's policy changes. The market generally expects that the pace of future interest rate cuts will be slower and more cautious. Analysts point out that the outlook for interest rate cuts in 2025 is full of uncertainty, and investors need to cope with possible economic turbulence.

According to the data, in January next year, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged is 87.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 12.8%. By March next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 50.6%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 5.4%.

(2) Web3 Field:

Bitcoin falls below $95,000 as market sentiment remains low and funds continue to flow out

The cryptocurrency market continues to experience fluctuations and downward trends, with Bitcoin falling again last night, reaching a low of $93,000, a new low in nearly a week. Data shows that the funding rates on major exchanges are generally bearish. At the same time, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $287 million on Friday, totaling a net outflow of $376 million last week. During the market adjustment period, centralized exchange platform tokens performed relatively well, while AI Agent-related projects remain popular, with significant capital inflow.

2. Hot Events

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

Prominent investment institutions oppose new regulations from the U.S. Treasury, believing it threatens DeFi innovation

The regulatory head of a well-known investment institution expressed the company's confidence in DeFi on social media, believing that DeFi will make financial services and the digital economy more convenient, efficient, interoperable, reliable, and consumer-centric. However, the official pointed out that the recent new broker report rules issued by the U.S. Treasury Department pose a direct threat to this vision and could hinder the future of DeFi innovation in the U.S.

The investment institution supports lawsuits initiated by multiple industry organizations, believing that the IRS and the Treasury Department have exceeded their statutory authority, violated the Administrative Procedure Act, and may be unconstitutional. The person in charge emphasized that they will continue to fight for the future of DeFi in court, Congress, and with the support of the new administration.

(2) web3 field:

Malaysia's regulatory authorities crack down: a trading platform ordered to cease operations for not being registered

The Securities Commission of Malaysia has taken strict enforcement action against a cryptocurrency trading platform and its CEO for operating a cryptocurrency asset trading business locally without proper registration. The regulatory agency has ordered the platform to immediately cease operations of its website, mobile application, and other digital platforms in Malaysia, and to complete rectifications within a specified timeframe. Additionally, the platform has been required to terminate all advertising activities targeting Malaysian investors and to close social media groups that provide support to local users.

Regulators stated that this decision is based on concerns about whether the platform complies with local regulatory requirements and protects investors' rights. Operating a digital asset trading platform without registration as a market operator approved by the securities commission is considered illegal under local law. As early as July 2021, the platform and its CEO were placed on the investors' warning list by regulators due to similar violations.

3. Hot Topics Narrative

AI Agent Market Surges Against the Trend, Certain Project's Market Value Reaches Historic High

The AI agent has once again attracted widespread attention. According to data, although the overall cryptocurrency market is experiencing a pullback, the AI agent sector is rising against the trend, with a 24-hour increase of 1.54%. A certain AI project recently released a proposal for tokenomics updates, focusing on innovations within specific frameworks through the acquisition of mature technologies and teams during the Launchpad phase in the first quarter of 2025, as well as achieving multi-chain integration to enhance value capture mechanisms such as initial launch fees and staking. The second phase focuses on ecological growth and incentive synergy, aiming to increase the value of multiple products, strengthen the connections between tokens, and incentivize developers through buybacks and ecological funds. Subsequently, the market capitalization of the project soared to $1.5 billion, setting a new historical high, reflecting the market's recognition of the potential of AI agents.

2. Hot Projects

1. Project Introduction

l SLINKY | ZK

- Narrative: The largest airdrop on a certain public chain represents a breakthrough in the technology of the tokens of that public chain.

- SLINKY's market value surpassed 10 million USD half an hour after the token was released yesterday, then retraced to 7 million USD, and is currently reported at 11 million USD.

- Allocate 10% of the total supply to wallets holding more than 0.006 tokens during the snapshot on August 30, totaling 27,775,857 wallets, achieving true large-scale distribution using ZK Compression. Traditional airdrop methods require 55,550 tokens as handling fees, while using Slinky's technology only requires 22.2 tokens.

3. Sector Rotation

1. Hot Sectors

2. Internal of the sector