Jinshi data on December 13th, Ping An Securities released the annual strategy report for the banking industry in 2025, pointing out that looking ahead to 2025, the insufficient effective demand and the continued pressure on asset pricing will still be important factors restricting the upward elasticity of bank profitability. On the one hand, the inhibitory effect of insufficient effective demand on the growth rate still exists. It is expected that the total new credit scale in 2025 will be between RMB 17.9 trillion and RMB 19.2 trillion, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 7.0% to 7.5%. The scale effect will slightly decrease the contribution to profitability. On the other hand, the level of interest rate spread is also constrained by the downward pricing level of the asset side. Factors such as LPR reduction, adjustment of existing mortgages, and implicit debt replacement will continue to impact asset pricing. However, considering the accelerated speed of deposit interest rate reduction, the progress of deposit repricing, and the regulatory measures such as manual interest supplementation and interbank liabilities, the narrowing of the interest rate spread is expected to be slightly reduced in 2025. In terms of asset quality, it is expected to remain stable. Continued policy efforts will support risks, and core indicators are expected to remain stable. Provisions are expected to continue to support profitability levels. Overall, it is expected that the net profit growth of listed banks in 2025 will be around 1.0%.
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Ping An Securities: 2025'te halka açılacak bankaların toplam net kar artış hızının %1 olacağını tahmin ediyoruz.
Jinshi data on December 13th, Ping An Securities released the annual strategy report for the banking industry in 2025, pointing out that looking ahead to 2025, the insufficient effective demand and the continued pressure on asset pricing will still be important factors restricting the upward elasticity of bank profitability. On the one hand, the inhibitory effect of insufficient effective demand on the growth rate still exists. It is expected that the total new credit scale in 2025 will be between RMB 17.9 trillion and RMB 19.2 trillion, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 7.0% to 7.5%. The scale effect will slightly decrease the contribution to profitability. On the other hand, the level of interest rate spread is also constrained by the downward pricing level of the asset side. Factors such as LPR reduction, adjustment of existing mortgages, and implicit debt replacement will continue to impact asset pricing. However, considering the accelerated speed of deposit interest rate reduction, the progress of deposit repricing, and the regulatory measures such as manual interest supplementation and interbank liabilities, the narrowing of the interest rate spread is expected to be slightly reduced in 2025. In terms of asset quality, it is expected to remain stable. Continued policy efforts will support risks, and core indicators are expected to remain stable. Provisions are expected to continue to support profitability levels. Overall, it is expected that the net profit growth of listed banks in 2025 will be around 1.0%.