Gold Ten Data, August 5th, financial website Forexlive analyst Adam Button stated that the inverted yield curve has maintained a good record in predicting the recession of the US economy since 1955. However, what really indicates the arrival of the recession is not the inverted curve, but the curve returning to normal. We can imagine it as a storm warning. The inverted curve means the storm is forming, and the release of the inverted curve means the storm is landing, especially in the bull market dominated by the front end. We won't see a recession before the data shows a contraction, but the market is definitely shrinking. In addition to the slope of the curve, the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds has fallen by 20 basis points, which is nominally 170 basis points lower than the Federal Reserve Fund Rate. This situation would not happen if there were no real problems with the economy.
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分析师：getiri eğrisi结束倒挂意味着经济衰退真正到来
Gold Ten Data, August 5th, financial website Forexlive analyst Adam Button stated that the inverted yield curve has maintained a good record in predicting the recession of the US economy since 1955. However, what really indicates the arrival of the recession is not the inverted curve, but the curve returning to normal. We can imagine it as a storm warning. The inverted curve means the storm is forming, and the release of the inverted curve means the storm is landing, especially in the bull market dominated by the front end. We won't see a recession before the data shows a contraction, but the market is definitely shrinking. In addition to the slope of the curve, the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds has fallen by 20 basis points, which is nominally 170 basis points lower than the Federal Reserve Fund Rate. This situation would not happen if there were no real problems with the economy.