Legal background and latest developments

Since June, the XRP market has been turbulent, mainly influenced by the years-long legal tug-of-war between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Against this backdrop, on June 20, rumors surfaced on social media that “the U.S. government might seize the XRP held in Ripple’s custody accounts,” triggering a brief panic sell-off. Ripple’s Chief Counsel Bill Morgan quickly clarified: “The U.S. government has no technical means or legal basis to seize tokens held on the XRPL network.” He pointed out that this assertion not only goes against common sense but also ignores the decentralized mechanism that governs the XRPL.

Currently, Ripple and the SEC have entered the final settlement stage. Since the preliminary settlement agreement was submitted on April 23 of this year, the court has approved both parties to extend the submission of the final ruling, and the relevant procedures are expected to be fully implemented in the third quarter of 2025. This means that the legal pressure facing XRP is gradually easing, and the market is expected to gradually return to the dominance of fundamentals and technicals.

Price Review and Technical Trend Analysis

Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/XRP_USDT

As of June 23, the latest price of XRP is $1.97, slightly below the key support of $2.09, with a 24-hour decline of 5.91%. However, from a longer-term perspective, $2.09 still constitutes the “lifeline” within the current cycle. From a technical standpoint, XRP is currently hovering near the EMA200 on the daily chart, and the MACD indicator shows initial signs of flattening below the zero line, suggesting that the short-term bearish momentum is nearing its end. At the same time, the RSI indicator has fallen to around 38, approaching the oversold area, increasing the likelihood of a rebound.

It is worth noting that after XRP fell below $2.09 in the past two instances, it quickly rebounded, indicating that there is structural buying support at this price level. Combined with the current alleviation of legal risks and restoration of market confidence, this support area may once again become the starting point for a market rebound.

Has the legal risk been lifted?

Although the lawyer has publicly refuted the rumors, the market should still rationally consider the long-term impact of Ripple’s legal issues on XRP:

1. “Seizure” risk debunked: According to the XRPL network mechanism, no single institution or country can forcibly take over the funds of other users or custodial accounts in the network;
2. Settlement agreement pending confirmation: Ripple needs to pay approximately $50 million in fines, and it remains unclear whether this will restrict future XRP sales or public fundraising.
3. Regulatory uncertainty persists: Although the US market is slowly shifting towards a “non-security” classification for XRP, regulatory standards in regions such as Europe and Asia remain to be observed.

Overall, XRP has gradually overcome the systemic risks brought about by “regulatory crackdowns,” but there are still some legal and compliance uncertainties in the short term, which pose a certain psychological pressure on investors.

Investor strategies

For novice users, we recommend adopting a more robust, risk-hedging investment approach:

1. Build positions on dips, do not chase highs.

XRP is currently approaching a historic support area, making it suitable for small exploratory positions. You can place buy orders in batches within the range of 1.90–2.00 dollars, controlling the first round of positions to not exceed 30% of the total budget.

2. Set Stop Loss and Take Profit Points

If the price falls below $1.85 and fails to recover within three days, consider stopping losses to prevent being trapped. If it rebounds to $2.15–$2.20, you can take profit on part of your position to lock in phase profits.

3. Diversification, spreading risks

It is recommended to pay attention to the trends of strong mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, or participate in stablecoin wealth management and staking products, to optimize asset allocation and reduce the impact of XRP fluctuations on overall returns.

Conclusion: Has the XRP waiting for dawn reached its bottom?

The current XRP price is hovering around $2.09, which not only represents an important turning point in the market’s technical pattern but also reflects a gradual desensitization of investors to legal events. Although the short-term trend remains uncertain, as the SEC lawsuit comes to a conclusion and Ripple deepens its global layout, the long-term value of XRP is being rediscovered by the market.

For beginners, there is no need to blindly chase highs and sell lows in short-term fluctuations. Instead, one should pay attention to the support levels of the larger cycles, the timeline of events, and the principles of capital management. Patiently waiting for the moment when the legal haze completely dissipates may be the best time to seize the opportunity for a rebound.