Crypto Market Trend Analysis

1. The macro environment and the crypto market are gradually improving

1. Tariff policies ease

Trump recently stated that the tariffs on Chinese imports are too high and that he expects a significant reduction in the tax rate. This marks a softening of his stance on tariff policy, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion and reduced volatility.

2. Expectations of loose monetary policy

CME interest rate futures show that the market expects rate cuts to begin in June, with a total of 3 cuts throughout the year, which may inject new liquidity into the market.

3. Promotion of encryption-friendly policies

The United States is advancing policies such as strategic Bitcoin reserves and digital asset reserves. Multiple states are promoting Bitcoin state reserve bills. Two stablecoin bills, the "GENIUS Act" and the "STABLE Act," are currently being pushed forward. The new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is seen as friendly towards the encryption industry, and it is expected that enforcement actions against crypto companies will be reduced.

4. BTC trend turns bullish

Since mid-March, BTC has outperformed the US stock market, reflecting some safe-haven properties. Technical indicators show that the BTC market trend has shifted from bearish to bullish.

2. ETH or Leading Altcoins

1. On-chain data analysis

The on-chain data such as the number of profitable addresses and the MVRV indicator show that ETH has entered the oversold zone, close to the bear market low. The cost distribution indicates that there is a significant accumulation of chips around $1850.

2. Contract Market Analysis

The total ETH contract holdings reached 21.8 billion USD, with an OI/MC ratio of 10%, higher than other mainstream currencies. Recently, the contract holdings have shown a positive correlation with prices, indicating that leveraged funds and spot funds are jointly driving the increase. The contract holdings of ETH on most exchanges are several times that of the spot reserves, providing a substantial liquidation space.

3. Technical Analysis

Multiple technical indicators for ETH are showing bottom signals, with K-line patterns, moving averages, MACD, and other indicators all indicating signs of a bullish reversal. The price has broken through the upper boundary of the downward channel and the horizontal resistance level, and is expected to form a new upward trend.

3. Worthy Altcoin Opportunities

1. NEIROETH

• The Meme coin project, inspired by the new pet dog of the Dogecoin prototype Kabosu.
• Market cap of 61 million USD, 24-hour contract trading volume of 843 million USD
• The OI/MC ratio is as high as 13.8, indicating a vibrant contract market.
• Long-short ratio 1.05, large holders are偏多头
• Recently, there has been a significant increase, with a rise of over 200% in 3 days.

2. ZEREBRO

• AI projects can create and analyze content on decentralized platforms.
• Market cap of $76.85 million, contract open interest increased by 300% in the last 24 hours.
• OI/MC ratio is about 65%, contract trading is active.
• The large holder long-short ratio is 1.4, leaning towards bullish.
• Recently, the price has risen by 165%, and the contract data has shown significant changes.

The overall crypto market is improving, and ETH is expected to lead the rebound of altcoins. Pay attention to the targets with unusual contract data, as they may yield excess returns.