Pi coin (PI) price prediction: After multiple rejections, can PI recover to 0.55 USD?

According to Gate, the performance of Pi Network (PI) in the Crypto Assets market has been quite arduous recently. Despite multiple attempts by long positions to rebound, they have not been able to successfully hold above the critical level of 0.55 USD. Currently, Pi coin is consolidating below an important resistance level, reflecting a cautious attitude among market long positions due to insufficient momentum. In the short term, the price movement of Pi coin has narrowed to between 0.527 USD and 0.548 USD, and traders are closely following whether it can break through this narrowing structure to indicate the direction for future movements.

1. The Current Status and Technical Analysis of Pi Coin

From the 4-hour chart, the price of PI coin has been steadily declining since the recent local high near $0.653, where it faced strong selling pressure. Currently, the price of PI coin is still below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMA cluster, with the upper resistance level of the 200-day EMA located at $0.607, while the 20-day EMA remains at $0.548. This bearish EMA trend clearly indicates that unless the price can break through the midpoint near $0.567, the downward trend is likely to continue.

(Source: Trading View)

The current price movement is compressed at the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart, where the lower band at $0.512 is a key short-term bottom. In the past 48 hours, the price of PI coin has touched this level twice, suggesting that a bottom may be forming. However, breaking through the resistance level at the upper Bollinger Band near $0.598 is clearly fraught with difficulties, which further reinforces the resistance range around $0.55-$0.56.

(Source: Trading View)

From the perspective of "Smart Money", the liquidity data on the 4-hour chart shows a significant imbalance block around $0.505, while the price has been hovering around the EQ area (equilibrium area) between $0.555 and $0.560. This aligns with the previously formed CHoCH area (Characteristic Change), indicating that a substantial trading volume confirmation is needed for further upward movement.

2. The Deep Reasons Behind the Price Drop of PI Today

Multiple bearish technical factors continue to weigh on the price movement of Pi coin. Observing the 30-minute chart, Pi coin is exhibiting a downward channel structure, with the trend line repeatedly facing resistance, while the parabolic turning indicator (SAR) remains above the price level, clearly indicating that the selling momentum is still strong.

(Source: Trading View)

The volume-weighted average price ( VWAP ) is currently at $0.538 and has turned into a resistance level, causing Pi coin to remain under pressure in intraday trading.

(Source: Trading View)

In addition, the MACD indicator on the 30-minute chart remains below the signal line, indicating that despite attempts at a bullish crossover, the momentum is weak and has failed to hold above. The RSI indicator has climbed from oversold levels to 47.6, but still remains below the neutral level of 50, suggesting that any upward potential is still fragile. Although a divergence is forming, the momentum has not been able to effectively continue.

(Source: Trading View)

On-chain momentum also reflects the market's cautious sentiment. The Money Flow Index (MFI) on the 4-hour chart is at 39.07, indicating continued capital outflow, while the OBV (On-Balance Volume) remains around -4.78M, confirming the market's lack of strong buyer accumulation.

Moreover, the CHoCH (Characteristic Change) and BOS (Break of Structure) signals from Smart Money confirm that sellers continue to dominate the order flow below $0.555. The liquidity sweep on both ends has failed to trigger any meaningful trend reversal, further confirming the market's indecisiveness.

3. Key Indicators Indicate Future Compression and Volatility

The RSI divergence on the 30-minute chart has recently shifted from a bearish rejection to a possible bullish divergence, although there is still a lack of clear confirmation. Before the RSI can rebound to 50 and hold above, it may merely signal a range expansion and lacks certainty.

(Source: Trading View)

At the same time, the price movement of Pi coin is between the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) ($0.538) and the support trend line ($0.527), forming a narrowing wedge structure. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands also supports this trend, indicating an impending expansion of volatility.

The 4-hour and daily charts also show that the trend lines are converging, pointing towards a medium-term peak around July 3 to 5. This consolidation range is likely to see a decisive price movement, but its direction will depend on whether buyers can successfully break through the supply range of 0.548 to 0.555.

4. PI Price Prediction: Short-term Outlook (24 Hours)

If the closing price of Pi can break through the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and the resistance level of 0.538-0.548 USD with strong trading volume support, then the next short-term target will be 0.567 USD (EMA100). If this resistance level can be continuously broken, it may open up upward space, with a target of 0.598 USD, and ultimately expected to reach 0.607 USD, which is the position of the 200-day moving average.

(Source: Trading View)

On the downside, if it drops below 0.527 USD, it may test 0.512 USD, the lower Bollinger Band, and the current bottom structure. If it completely falls below 0.512 USD, it could accelerate the descent towards the order range of 0.5019 USD, followed by the support level of 0.475 USD for the smart coin.

Conclusion:

Overall, the price volatility of PI remains high and is currently within a tightening wedge structure. Given that multiple indicators show a neutral to bearish state and trading volume is stagnant, traders should be prepared for potential large fluctuations as price compression approaches its conclusion. Whether PI can recover to $0.55 will be the focus of market attention in the coming days.