That index hit a historical high, the dollar fell 10% in six months, and investors are closely following the progress of trade negotiations.

U.S. stocks rose on Monday (6/30), with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index reaching new historical highs. The dollar fell 10.8% in the first six months of this year, marking the worst first half performance since 1973. As Trump’s July 9 trade deadline approaches, countries are intensifying negotiations.

2025 First Half Review: S&P 500 rises 5.5%, USD falls 10.8%

In a strong quarter-end, Wall Street bulls drove the stock market to a historic high, with the market expecting the U.S. to be close to reaching a specific tariff agreement with its major trading partners.

The S&P 500 Index rose 4.96% in June, surged 10.57% in the second quarter, marking its best quarterly performance since 2023, and increased 5.50% in the first half of this year.

Nevertheless, Trump's tariff agenda still presents broader uncertainties regarding its long-term structural impact on the global economy, as the dollar fell 10.8% in the first six months of this year, marking the worst first-half performance since 1973.

The deadline is approaching on 7/9, and countries are negotiating intensively.

As the July 9 trade deadline approaches, Trump has stated that he does not intend to extend this deadline.

The EU is willing to accept an agreement that includes a 10% universal tariff on many export products to the EU, but is seeking key exemptions. Trump's chief economic advisor stated that the White House plans to finalize the agreement with partners after the July 4th holiday.

After Canada made concessions to cancel the digital services tax on American technology companies, the United States will immediately resume trade negotiations with Canada.

In addition, Trump threatened to impose a new round of tariffs on Japanese products exported to the U.S. because Japan refused to import American rice.

The earnings season has begun; will the trade war affect corporate profits?

Chris Larkin of Morgan Stanley E*Trade stated: The market has shaken off signs of economic slowdown, but due to the uncertain tariff outlook, negative surprises in employment could have a greater impact, especially during holiday weeks when trading volume may be lower.

This Friday coincides with the U.S. Independence Day on July 4th, and the June employment report will be released on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that new job opportunities in the U.S. labor market will slow from 139,000 last month to about 110,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.3%.

For the Federal Reserve, which is waiting for further clarity on the potential inflation impact of tariffs, any significant deterioration in the labor market could lead to greater pressure on officials to cut interest rates.

The second quarter earnings report will be released in July. Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin stated that as investors assess the damage caused by the Trump trade war, corporate profit margins will face severe challenges in the upcoming earnings season. They noted that profits will "directly reflect" the negative impact of tariffs. Since the beginning of this year, tariffs have been raised by approximately 10 percentage points.

This article mentions that the index has reached an all-time high, the dollar has fallen 10% in six months, and investors are closely monitoring the progress of trade negotiations. It first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.