According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin call options with an expiration date of June 27 and a strike price of up to $300,000 currently on cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit rank second in open interest, behind options contracts with a strike price of $110,000. Bitcoin breaks all-time high, OKX spot reaches $109,457! Binance market difference 0.2%) (Background supplement: Standard Chartered Bank: Institutions are buying micro-strategies aggressively (MSTR) laying out bitcoin, looking at $500,000 on BTC in 2029) According to Bloomberg, currently in the open interest on cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit, the expiration date is June 27, and the strike price is up to $300,000 bitcoin call options, It ranks second in open interest after options contracts with a strike price of $110,000. Why would anyone buy such "sky-high" options? A $300,000 price target, which equals a 270% increase in Bitcoin in a month, is honestly not very probable, but it also reflects the following strategies: 1. Extreme bull market bets (casino thinking) This option may cost only a few dozen or a few hundred dollars, but if Bitcoin does go viral (e.g. ETF buying frenzy, dollar confidence collapses, money migration), then the reward could be thousands of times: "I know you won't happen, but I'm willing to bet you on what if." 2. Leveraged statement (market sentiment radar) This can also be seen as a signal of "extreme greed in the market". The appearance of this out-of-the-money option trading represents that some players believe that bitcoin has huge room to rise in the short term, which may be a phenomenon that will occur at the end of the bull market. 3. Hedging or long hedging operations Some institutions may hold large long positions in the spot or other derivatives market, and they will buy some deep out-of-the-money options as "tail hedging". Something like: "If bitcoin does skyrocket, then my lotto ticket will make up for the other opportunity costs I didn't catch." The market is bullish and overheated? In response to this phenomenon, Jeffrey Howard, Head of North America, Cryptocurrency Brokerage Nonco, commented: "The price structure of the Bitcoin options market over different periods of time still shows a clear bullish tendency, and the price of forward call options is significantly higher than that of the same type of put, which shows that the market generally expects Bitcoin to continue to rise." At the same time, Ravi Doshi, head of market at FalconX, also pointed out that as the price of bitcoin approaches all-time highs, investors' interest in potential upside has heated up again and began to actively plan for possible gains. However, this extremely out-of-the-money option activity may also be one of the signs of speculative overheating. While it doesn't mean that the market will peak immediately, there is a high probability that investment sentiment will enter a frenzy and make price volatility more violent. Gamma squeeze potential emerges It is also worth noting that the recent emergence of a large number of short-term, strike price concentrated options transactions may also bury the so-called "Gamma Squeeze", that is, when a large number of call options are bought, in order to hedge risk, option sellers (such as market makers) often need to buy spot or contract positions, which may push up the market price and accelerate the price increase. Greg Magadini, head of Amberdata's derivatives department, pointed out that from Deribit's bitcoin position, many market makers have a large amount of negative gamma exposure at the price of $110,000, which means that they may be forced to passively buy when the price rises, further boosting market momentum. Forecast market slightly cautious Although the market is still generally optimistic about the performance of bitcoin this year, in terms of specific price forecasts, the market is slightly cautious from the perspective of the prediction platform Polymarket. According to the latest data from Polymarket, the predictions about what price Bitcoin will eventually reach this year, specifically, the market bets are: $1 million: 3% $250,000: 10% $200,000: 17% $150,000: 40% $130,000: 63% $120,000: 75% $110,000: 93% $70,000: 29% $50,000: 14% $20,000: 4% Related reports Wall Street is bullish on Bitcoin miner Core Scientific stock price rises another 60%: eat AI computing power dividend Analysts disassemble the law of bitcoin's ladder rise: the next target price is $115,000 Banks can custody bitcoin" Financial Regulatory Commission: Cathay Shihua, CITIC, KGI and Commonwealth Bank have applied for "virtual asset custody business" (Deribit option bet on bitcoin rushed to $300,000 at the end of June, what clues are revealed? This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".
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What clues are revealed behind Deribit Options betting Bitcoin will surge to 300,000 USD by the end of June?
According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin call options with an expiration date of June 27 and a strike price of up to $300,000 currently on cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit rank second in open interest, behind options contracts with a strike price of $110,000. Bitcoin breaks all-time high, OKX spot reaches $109,457! Binance market difference 0.2%) (Background supplement: Standard Chartered Bank: Institutions are buying micro-strategies aggressively (MSTR) laying out bitcoin, looking at $500,000 on BTC in 2029) According to Bloomberg, currently in the open interest on cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit, the expiration date is June 27, and the strike price is up to $300,000 bitcoin call options, It ranks second in open interest after options contracts with a strike price of $110,000. Why would anyone buy such "sky-high" options? A $300,000 price target, which equals a 270% increase in Bitcoin in a month, is honestly not very probable, but it also reflects the following strategies: 1. Extreme bull market bets (casino thinking) This option may cost only a few dozen or a few hundred dollars, but if Bitcoin does go viral (e.g. ETF buying frenzy, dollar confidence collapses, money migration), then the reward could be thousands of times: "I know you won't happen, but I'm willing to bet you on what if." 2. Leveraged statement (market sentiment radar) This can also be seen as a signal of "extreme greed in the market". The appearance of this out-of-the-money option trading represents that some players believe that bitcoin has huge room to rise in the short term, which may be a phenomenon that will occur at the end of the bull market. 3. Hedging or long hedging operations Some institutions may hold large long positions in the spot or other derivatives market, and they will buy some deep out-of-the-money options as "tail hedging". Something like: "If bitcoin does skyrocket, then my lotto ticket will make up for the other opportunity costs I didn't catch." The market is bullish and overheated? In response to this phenomenon, Jeffrey Howard, Head of North America, Cryptocurrency Brokerage Nonco, commented: "The price structure of the Bitcoin options market over different periods of time still shows a clear bullish tendency, and the price of forward call options is significantly higher than that of the same type of put, which shows that the market generally expects Bitcoin to continue to rise." At the same time, Ravi Doshi, head of market at FalconX, also pointed out that as the price of bitcoin approaches all-time highs, investors' interest in potential upside has heated up again and began to actively plan for possible gains. However, this extremely out-of-the-money option activity may also be one of the signs of speculative overheating. While it doesn't mean that the market will peak immediately, there is a high probability that investment sentiment will enter a frenzy and make price volatility more violent. Gamma squeeze potential emerges It is also worth noting that the recent emergence of a large number of short-term, strike price concentrated options transactions may also bury the so-called "Gamma Squeeze", that is, when a large number of call options are bought, in order to hedge risk, option sellers (such as market makers) often need to buy spot or contract positions, which may push up the market price and accelerate the price increase. Greg Magadini, head of Amberdata's derivatives department, pointed out that from Deribit's bitcoin position, many market makers have a large amount of negative gamma exposure at the price of $110,000, which means that they may be forced to passively buy when the price rises, further boosting market momentum. Forecast market slightly cautious Although the market is still generally optimistic about the performance of bitcoin this year, in terms of specific price forecasts, the market is slightly cautious from the perspective of the prediction platform Polymarket. According to the latest data from Polymarket, the predictions about what price Bitcoin will eventually reach this year, specifically, the market bets are: $1 million: 3% $250,000: 10% $200,000: 17% $150,000: 40% $130,000: 63% $120,000: 75% $110,000: 93% $70,000: 29% $50,000: 14% $20,000: 4% Related reports Wall Street is bullish on Bitcoin miner Core Scientific stock price rises another 60%: eat AI computing power dividend Analysts disassemble the law of bitcoin's ladder rise: the next target price is $115,000 Banks can custody bitcoin" Financial Regulatory Commission: Cathay Shihua, CITIC, KGI and Commonwealth Bank have applied for "virtual asset custody business" (Deribit option bet on bitcoin rushed to $300,000 at the end of June, what clues are revealed? This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".