Timothy Peterson: The current bear market of Bitcoin lasts only 90 days

The current Bitcoin bear market (BTC), defined as a decline of 20% or more from its all-time high, is relatively mild and is expected to last only 90 days, according to market analyst Timothy Peterson, author of "Metcalfe's Law as a Model for the Value of Bitcoin – Metcalfe's Law as a Model for the Value of Bitcoin."

Peterson compared this downturn cycle to 10 previous bear markets, which occurred at an average frequency of once a year. He stated that only four bear markets lasted longer than the current one, including the years 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.

According to Peterson, the likelihood of Bitcoin falling below the 50,000 USD mark is low due to the increasing trend of adoption. However, he also argues that, based on the current momentum, a scenario where BTC drops below 80,000 USD is unlikely. He stated:

"In the next 30 days, a recovery of 20-40% may occur after April 15. This trend may become clearer on the chart around day 120. This recovery could be sufficient to bring back the lagging suppliers to the market and push BTC prices higher."

Source: Timothy Peterson## Investors withdraw from risky assets due to trade war concerns

The cryptocurrency market has undergone a significant downturn after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on some of America's trade, leading to payment measures against the country's exports, causing concerns about a prolonged trade war.

The fear of risk is increasing as advisors show less interest in confronting assets that are heavily impacted by the trade war and macroeconomic instability.

Data from Glassnode Hot Supply – a measure of the amount of BTC held for a week or less – shows that this ratio has decreased from 5.9% at the time of the historic price surge in November 2024 to 2.3% on March 20 of this year.

According to Nicolai Sondergaard, an analyst at Nansen, the cryptocurrency market will continue to face pressure from the trade war at least until April 2025, when international negotiations are likely to ease or completely eliminate tariffs.

A recent analysis from CryptoQuant also indicates that the majority of retail investors have entered the market, extinguishing long-held hopes for a new wave of capital from retail investors to flow into the market and provide BTC prices in the short term.

Moreover, the trade war has made Bitcoin a safe-haven asset. The price of BTC plummeted along with other risk assets as the market reacted negatively to news related to tariffs.

Disclaimer: The article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investments should be carefully researched before making a decision. We do not take responsibility for your investment decisions.

• Pressure on Bitcoin increases as whales actively trade.
• The Trump administration is considering revaluing gold to support the purchase of Bitcoin.

Mr. Teacher

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