There will be no Bitcoin bullish event in 2025 - 'The good times' will start in 2026

Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture, testing key resistance levels that could determine the next major move.

In the past, when Bitcoin faced similar levels in a bull market, it has surpassed, maintained, and soared.

Bitcoin is trading below $85,000 as the crypto market experiences volatility ahead of the FOMC announcement. Many traders are concerned that the market will collapse if the Fed signals it will maintain high interest rates for a longer period.

However, in the latest post on X, Lark Dewis, a Bitcoin investor and entrepreneur, mentioned a chart created 150 years ago that shows the best times to make money in the market.

This chart has been very accurate in the past, such as predicting the market crash in 2008 by advising people to exit positions in 2007.

Source: Lark Dewis## Is Bitcoin about to reach a new ATH?

The chart divides the market into cycles, signaling "bull phases", "bear phases" and years of panic, while also marking specific years for optimal profit-taking.

Currently, the chart indicates that 2026 will be the "year of good times," likely a great period for selling and taking profits. The question is whether this market cycle will extend to 2026 and whether we will witness a new ATH for Bitcoin next year.

Dewis shared that we need to wait and see, as only time can reveal whether this prediction is correct or not.

Analysts' Perspectives

While on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin market may be changing, recently, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that the bull run may have ended and prices will move slowly or decrease in the next 6 to 12 months.

Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach a new record high by June 2025. However, the bullish wedge pattern on the BTC chart indicates that this could happen sooner.

The wedge pattern is nearing its breakout point, and if Bitcoin breaks out, we could see the price surge. On the other hand, a rejection could cause the price to reverse and drop deeper.

1 million USD by 2029?

Bitcoin has decreased by 30% since reaching a new peak in mid-January 2025. Although this may seem concerning, in reality, this is a typical pullback in a bull market.

In previous growth phases, Bitcoin has dropped by as much as 55% before establishing a new ATH.

In addition, despite the bleak outlook, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts that Bitcoin could reach 1 million USD by 2029, citing the growth momentum after past declines. He believes that the "drop then surge" trend could happen again.

FOMC meeting decides the direction

Bitcoin is hovering just above $83,000 with relatively little volatility as the market awaits the FOMC meeting tomorrow. With uncertainty in the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%.

The Fed is opting for a cautious strategy in March, offering little guidance on what will happen next, which leaves the market uncertain. If interest rates remain unchanged, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may build upward momentum, especially as Polymarket predicts a 100% chance that interest rates will decrease in May.

You can check the BTC price here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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Viet Cuong

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