Analysis: BTC is a healthy pullback, not a bear market, five major indicators reveal adjustment or end of

Despite BTC dropping over 30% from its recent all-time high, some analysts have pointed out that based on historical trends, the weakening of the US dollar, healthy Derivatives market data, and the potential revival of risk appetite, this round of BTC fall may have come to an end. (Background: Standard Chartered Bank: BTC's recent fall is due to the weak performance of US stocks, with two catalysts propelling BTC to potentially reach $200,000 by the end of the year) (Context: BTC broke through 83,000》Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, Trump called off the 50% retaliatory tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum) Due to the spread of panic over the Trump tariff war, BTC fell below $77,000 this week, hitting a near four-month low. However, analysis by Cointelegraph indicates that several key indicators suggest that this adjustment may have ended. BTC's Bear Market requires a 40% fall First, some analysts believe that BTC has entered a Bear Market, but the current trend is significantly different from the Bear Market in November 2021. Back then, BTC plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days, but the current adjustment is more akin to a 31.5% pullback starting in June 2024. A true Bear Market would require at least a 40% fall, a level that has not been reached yet. Comparison of BTC trends in November 2021 and February 2025. Weakness in the US dollar benefits BTC Secondly, BTC usually exhibits a reverse relationship with the US dollar index. During the BTC Bear Market in 2021, the US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar index rising from 92.4 in September 2021 to 96.0 in December 2021. However, the current situation is different, as the US dollar index has fallen from 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 to the current 104. The current environment of a weakening US dollar is favorable for stabilizing BTC prices. Comparison of BTC and US dollar index trends in November 2021 and February 2025. Derivatives market remains healthy Third, data from the Derivatives market shows signs of stability. Despite a 19% fall in prices from March 2 to March 11, the BTC futures annualized premium remains at 4.5%, significantly higher than the negative premium levels during the Bear Market in June 2022. Additionally, the funding rate for Perpetual Futures remains close to zero, indicating a balance in long and short leverage demands and no excessive short demands as seen in Bear Markets. Trend of BTC 2-month futures annualized premium. Market may rebound if risk sentiment improves Fourth, the market is currently focused on the possibility of the US government facing a shutdown on March 15, AI bubble risks, and the significant pullback of listed companies with a market cap exceeding $150 billion, including TSL (-54%), Nvidia (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This spreading risk sentiment has led to a short-term adjustment in BTC. However, if the US Congress reaches an agreement on relevant budget bills to avoid a government shutdown, market sentiment is expected to improve, potentially leading to a rebound in BTC and other risk assets. Real estate crisis may drive funds into the currency market Additionally, another factor is the early signs of a crisis in the US real estate market, which may actually benefit BTC. Overall, the possibility of BTC returning to $90,000 is supported by factors such as a weakening US dollar, historical experiences showing that a 30% pullback does not necessarily indicate a Bear Market, the resilience of the BTC Derivatives market, the potential alleviation of risks from a US government shutdown, and the possibility of a crisis in the real estate market leading to potential outflows of funds. Related reports: BTC breaks through 83,000》Ukraine agrees to a 30-day ceasefire, Trump calls off the 50% retaliatory tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum Arthur Hayes: BTC will bottom out at $70,000! Just wait for the US stock market crash and Fed rate cuts to "increase the position" From market sentiment, technical trends, and on-chain data analysis, has BTC reached its bottom? The article "Analysis: BTC is experiencing a healthy pullback rather than a bearish trend, five key indicators reveal the end of the adjustment" was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media on Block."