11/03 Technical Analysis Based on Data from BTC/USDT Charts

1. Identify the key trends of the market ✅ 1D & 1W Frame BTC is decreasing the correction after a period of strong gains. The price broke down to EMA(7) and EMA(25), indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. A break-of-structure (BOS) appears on the 1D frame, confirming the medium-term downtrend. ✅ 1H & 4H Frame BTC shows signs of a slight recovery after touching the support zone of $77,459.91 (thấp the 24h). However, the price is still below EMA(99) and EMA(25), which means that the downtrend is still dominant. The MACD on the 1H frame began to converge, but on the 4H frame there are still no signs of a strong reversal. ➡ Bottom line: The short-term trend may have a retracement but the medium-term is still bearish.

2. Identify key support & resistance zones ✅ Nearest Support: $77,459.91 – This is a 24-hour low, and there has been a price reaction from here. $75,853.50 – Further support if the price continues to fall. ✅ Last Resistance: $80,450 - $81,000 – This is the EMA(25) zone on the 4H frame, if BTC rebounds here without strong buying pressure, it may continue to fall. $84,000 – $84,500 – The nearest high, which needs to be crossed to confirm a bullish reversal again. ➡ Scenario: If BTC fails to break above $80,450, it may continue to decline towards $77,500 or deeper.

3. Candlestick Pattern Analysis & Price Action ✅ On 1H & 4H frames: A Pin Bar appears at the $77,459 support area, confirming that buying is coming in. However, there are no strong reversal candles like Bullish Engulfing or Morning Star. ✅ On the 1D frame: Candlestick drops sharply with large volume → Selling pressure remains. If today's candle closes below $79,000, further declines are possible. ➡ Bottom Line: It is necessary to monitor the price reaction when it touches the near resistance areas.

4. Technical Indicator Analysis ✅ MACD 1H frame: MACD is about to cross upwards, there may be a short retracement. 4H & 1D frames: MACD is still below the signal line → The downtrend is still dominant. ✅ RSI Frame 1H: RSI touched the oversold area (dưới 30) and bounced up slightly. 4H & 1D frames: RSI is still in a downtrend, there is no bullish divergence yet. ✅ Bollinger Bands The price is touching the lower border on the 1D frame → Easy to have a retracement. But if the volume weakens, it may continue to decline deeply. ✅ OBV & Volume OBV on the 1D frame is still down → Cash flow has not really returned. Volume gradually decreases when the price returns → Buying force is not strong enough to reverse. ➡ Summary: Although there is a short retracement, there are no signs of a strong reversal.

5. Cash Flow Analysis & Smart Money Concept (SMC) ✅ Order Block (OB) Important: The $80,000 - $81,000 zone is the nearest Order Block on the 4H frame. If the price touches this but there is no strong volume, it may continue to fall. ✅ Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (ChoCH): On the 1D frame, there has been a decrease in BOS → The main trend is still bearish. It is necessary to have a bullish on the 4H frame to confirm the bullish reversal. ✅ Open Interest (OI) & Delta Volume: OI decreases when the price drops → Investors are exiting orders, there is no large cash inflow. Strong negative Delta Volume → Selling pressure remains. ➡ In summary: There is no sign of large cash flows returning to the market.

6. Determine the market stage according to the Wyckoff Method BTC may be in the (Distribution) distribution phase if it continues to decline from $80,000. If it breaks the support of $77,500 with strong volume, it is possible to enter the Markdown (giảm giá) phase. If the price holds steady and makes a higher bottom, it may be a consolidation to rise again.

7. Suggest a trading strategy ✅ Scenario 1: BTC retraces to the $80,450 - $81,000 zone and then declines further (Khả cao) Strategy: Watch short if BTC touches this area without large volume support. Goal: $77,500 – $75,850. Stop loss: Above $81,500. ✅ Scenario 2: BTC holds above $77,500 and makes a higher bottom (Ít possible hơn) Strategy: Wait for confirmation of BOS rising on the 4H frame, enter Long. Goal: $84,000 – $85,000. Stop loss: Below $77,000. ✅ Scenario 3: BTC breaks down to $77,500 with strong volume Strategy: Wait for the pullback to go Short. Goal: $75,000 or deeper.

Summary of conclusions

1. Main trend: BTC is still in a downtrend, although there may be a short-term retracement.
2. Critical Support: $77,500 – If this level is lost, it could go back to $75,850.
3. Critical resistance: $80,450 – $81,000 – If not crossed, further declines are possible.
4. Technical indicators: MACD, RSI, Volume have not confirmed a strong reversal.
5. Cash flow: There is no signal of large cash flows returning to the market.
6. Trading strategy: Watch short if BTC retraces to $80,450 – $81,000. Long is cautious if BTC holds above $77,500 and there is a bullish BOS signal.

📌 Note: It is necessary to monitor the price reaction when BTC touches important levels before deciding to trade!