BTC/USDT analysis on 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W timeframes

Analyze BTC/USDT by the following factors: Key Trend, Support & Resistance, Price Action, Technical Indicators, Smart Money Concept (SMC), Wyckoff Market Stage, and Trading Strategy.

1. Identify key trends 1W Frame (Tuần) Overall trend: Long-term uptrend but correcting. EMA(7, 25, 99): BTC remains above EMA(99) but has broken EMA(7) and EMA(25), indicating that bearish momentum is dominating. MACD: There are signs of convergence, the histogram is weakening. OBV: Volume is gradually decreasing, indicating that large cash flows show signs of withdrawing from the market. Conclusion: BTC is still in a long-term uptrend, but may adjust to the support zone before rising further. 1D Frame (Ngày) Key Trend: Downward correction in an uptrend. EMA(7, 25, 99): The price has been below the EMA(7) and EMA(25), but remains above the EMA(99), confirming the downward correction. MACD: Negative histogram, MACD crosses below the Signal line → bearish momentum dominates. RSI: RSI ~40-45, not oversold but weak. Open Interest (OI): Decreasing, proving that large cash flows have not returned strongly. Conclusion: The downward trend corrects, possibly to a strong support area before continuing to rise. 4H Frame Main trend: Short-term downtrend, slight recovery. EMA(7, 25, 99): The organizers are testing EMA(7) but have not yet regained EMA(25). MACD: There are signs of upward convergence, but it is not clear. Volume: Slightly increased in the green candles, indicating buying power but not strong. Conclusion: There may be a rebound before the continuation of the downtrend. Frame 1H Main trend: Recovering slightly after touching the support area. EMA(7, 25, 99): The price has just bounced off the EMA(7), but EMA(25) is still resistance. MACD: Positive histogram, MACD shows signs of crossing up the signal. Volume: Strong increase in the nearest green candle, be it a Short Covering or Smart Money signal to enter the order. Conclusion: BTC can rebound to test the EMA(25) and resistance area before deciding on the next trend.

2. Identify Critical Support & Resistance Areas Support 76,500 - 78,000 USDT: The strongest support zone according to Fibonacci and Order Block. 80,000 USDT: Critical psychological support (đã mạnh) reaction. Resistance 85,000 - 86,000 USDT: EMA(25) resistance on the day frame. 90,000 - 91,500 USDT: Fibonacci Resistance 0.618 + Old Order Block. 95,000 USDT: The nearest old peak.

3. Price Action Analysis & Candlestick Patterns 1W: A large red candle appears, confirming the correction. 1D: There are several candlesticks retrace near the 80,000 area, indicating buying power. 4H, 1H: Bullish Engulfing candlesticks appear near the support area → may have a retracement. Liquidity Grab & Smart Money Concept (SMC) BTC showed signs of scanning the stop-loss in the 80,000 USDT area before bouncing off. If the price continues to recover but is rejected at 85,000 USDT, it may fall to 78,000 - 76,500 USDT.

4. Technical Indicator Analysis MACD: Decreased but showed signs of slight upward convergence in the short-term frame. RSI: Not oversold, but at a low, which could bounce off in the short term. Bollinger Bands: BTC is at the lower boundary, may rebound to test the BB average. OBV & MFI: Cash flows haven't really flowed in strongly, so more confirmation signals are needed.

5. Determine the market stage according to Wyckoff 1W, 1D frames: BTC shows signs of distribution after a strong rally. If the price breaks 80,000: It is possible to enter the Markdown phase (giảm deep hơn). If it holds 80,000 – 78,000 and bounces strongly: It could be a buildup before the next rally.

6. Suggested trading strategies In case the organizers return to test the resistance (Bearish Scenario) Short entry: 85,000 - 86,000 USDT Stop-loss: Over 87,000 USDT Take-profit: 80,000 - 78,000 USDT Confirmation: If the price is strongly rejected at 85,000 USDT with large volume. In case BTC holds support and pops up (Bullish Scenario) Long entry: 78,000 - 80,000 USDT Stop-loss: Below 76,500 USDT Take-profit: 85,000 - 90,000 USDT Confirmation: If a strong reversal candle appears + OBV increases + large volume.

Conclude BTC is in a downward correction trend on the (1W and 1D) large frames, but there may be a short-term retracement. The 4H and 1H frames have recovery signals, but need further confirmation when testing important resistances. Critical Support Zone: 80,000 - 78,000 USDT Critical Resistance Zone: 85,000 - 86,000 USDT Trading strategy: If the price retraces to the 85,000 - 86,000 area but is rejected, it is possible to go short. If the price holds 78,000 - 80,000 and a reversal signal appears, it is possible to go long.