Bitcoin flash crash, what signals did the traders who escaped the top early find?

KOLs' different coping strategies have been followed in the extreme volatility of BTC, and this article will explore their market views and their impact on investors' decision-making. This article is from Luke, an article by Mars Finance and reprinted by Foresight News. (Synopsis: Chinese KOLs lose BTC contracts!) Long orderCut Loss 1,783 BTC, profit pullback $100 million) (background added: BTC panic fall, should I get on the bus? Analysis of key support levels for BTC and ETH In extreme market conditions, investor sentiment and decision-making become crucial. And those KOLs with a large fan base on social media often influence the trend of the market invisibly. In today's big dump, these KOLs react differently. Some released a Depth analysis of the market at this time, putting forward a bearish view; Some expressed patience; Others choose to protect their funds through a decisive stop loss strategy. These different voices and strategies reflect the different thinking of KOLs in the face of sharp market fluctuations, and also provide investors with different references. At the high point of the market, it is almost every investor's dream to be able to accurately determine the peak and sell it in time to avoid subsequent losses. Through keen observation of market data and Depth analysis, some KOLs have successfully achieved this, accurately identifying signs of overheating in the market and making decisions accordingly. For example, as early as January 13, Mr. Berg (@market_beggar) warned that the market was already overheating through on-chain data such as "Realized Profit", AVIV heat map, Cointime price deviation and other indicators. His core point is that the top of the market usually goes through two rounds of obvious "distribution" phases. Each round of Bull Market will have a large number of investors quietly accumulating chips at a low level, and the distribution of these chips is a signal that the Bull Market is gradually coming to an end. When market sentiment reaches its extreme and participants generally hold higher-cost chips, once the price cannot continue to rise, selling orders will gradually emerge, eventually triggering price falls, forming the beginning of the Bear Market. Using an on-chain data model, Mr. Berger pointed out that every time Bull Market peaks, there are two rounds of signaling. The first round of distribution is at the beginning of the market, when the price rises, a large number of low-cost chips begin to rush to the market. As the price pulls back, market sentiment gradually recovers, catch the bottom funds enter, pushing the market into the second round of distribution. At this time, a large number of "high-priced dumb buying" people begin to come under pressure, and if the price fails to continue to rise or begins to oscillate, this part of the high-cost holders will intensify the selling pressure, further triggering the next fall. How to identify the top signal? Mr. Begger's top-end judgment model is dynamically corrected through multiple on-chain data, including metrics such as Realized Profit, AVIV Heatmap, and Cointime Price Deviation. Realized Profit: When the market price breaks 70k, there is already a clear take profit signal, which marks the beginning of the first round of distributions. As the price broke above $100,000 and the second round of distributions became apparent again, the market began to see more selling pressure. AVIV Heatmap: This heat map helps us to see if the market is in an overheating phase. The AVIV indicator showed signs of overheating when the market reached its peak, and this phenomenon showed itself again when it broke through $100,000, indicating that the pressure of the second distribution had accumulated. Cointime Price Deviation: Mr. Berg traces historical tops through this model and finds that each cyclical top is accompanied by two distinct peaks, and the current market is in the second peak phase and is already showing signs of turning around. Similarly, calm calm and calm again (@hexiecs) made a similar judgment on January 20. He pointed out that Trump's wife, issuanceencryptioncoin, was a clear regional top signal in the market, so he decisively closed all positions, sold 90% of BTC, and exited TRUMP Position. Recalling the decision, he said that without this signal, he might not have made the decision so decisively. He also mentioned that despite trying to get higher returns through on-chain operations, fast PVP (player-to-player) transactions have left old players with almost no way back in a market environment where Liquidity has dried up. Arthur Hayes has expressed similar sentiments in recent articles and tweets. He believes that since the US political environment has not fundamentally changed due to Trump's election, the cryptocurrency price may return to the level of the fourth quarter of 2024. He pointed out that many IBIT holders are actually Arbitrage funds, and they make profits through Long ETFs and Short CME futures, but once the BTC price falls, they will sell IBIT and buy back CME futures, which may push the BTC price further down, even to $70,000. Arthur Hayes believes that only the US Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, or other countries can effectively improve the current market conditions through some form of coin easing. Through deep analysis of the market and keen insight into the macro environment, these KOLs successfully avoid the top risk of the market, providing investors with important signals about market changes. Cut Loss type When the market falls, timely stop loss is the key strategy to protect the principal. Although stop loss often means short-term losses, being able to execute this operation decisively and avoid greater risks can often effectively reduce losses, showing investors' ability to remain calm in the midst of turmoil. Setting 10 big goals first is a typical example. When the market fell, he quickly liquidated Long Order, despite losing hundreds of millions of dollars as a result. It is worth noting that he set a clear stop loss line a few days ago, and as soon as the market touches this line, he immediately executes Close Position. This strict approach to risk management reflects his great emphasis on trading discipline. He mentioned on social media that although stop loss brings immediate losses, he believes that admitting failure and stopping losses in time is the only way to protect capital and avoid greater losses. The most dangerous thing in the market is not failure, but ignoring the signs of failure, taking chances, and eventually leading to more serious losses. In his analysis, he emphasizes one of the core principles of trading: quick reaction and decisiveness. In the face of the sharp fluctuation of the market, only by calmly responding and quickly adjusting the strategy can we avoid risks to the greatest extent. And this kind of calm decision-making power also stems from a deep understanding and self-awareness of market trends. In the market's violent fluctuations, there are some KOLs who choose to stay calm, and they usually take a longer-term view, believing that short-term fluctuations are just normal in the market cycle and do not have to overreact. For these KOLs, patience and determination are the keys to success, and they are often able to maintain clear judgment in the noise of the market. In a recent tweet, Raoul Pal reminded everyone: "You need to learn to be patient...... It's like in 2017, BTC experienced five callbacks, each more than 28%, most of which lasted 2 to 3 months before the market reached new highs. What a lot of people worry about is just noise." By reviewing historical trends, he told the investment...