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- 📢 Gate Square #MBG Posting Challenge# is Live— Post for MBG Rewards!
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Why is Ethereum being shorted at record levels? Institutions have increased positions 6x! - Coin Bulletin
**In Ethereum (ETH) futures, the short positions opened by hedge funds reached record levels, and the fundamental reasons for this situation and its effects on the market became a matter of curiosity.
Short positions for (CME) ETH futures are rapidly increasing on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. While some of these positions, opened by hedge funds, are created with a direct expectation of ETH price decline, a significant portion is based on arbitrage transactions known as carry trade. Carry trade stands out as a strategy aiming to profit from price differences between the futures market and the spot market.
What is the strategy of hedge funds?
According to data tracked by ZeroHedge and Kobeissi Letter, as of February 4th, hedge funds hold a net 11,341 contracts of ETH futures short position on CME. This number increased by 40% in a week and 500% since November.
According to CF Benchmarks Product Lead Thomas Erdösi, this increase is progressing in parallel with the inflows into spot ETH ETFs traded in the US. Hedge funds open short positions in CME ETH futures while simultaneously conducting carry trade operations by buying ETH ETFs from the spot market. Erdösi states that the size of short positions in the ETH futures market has increased by approximately $470 million recently, which corresponds to around $480 million in fund inflows into spot ETFs.
However, all of these short positions are not caused by carry trade. The relatively weaker performance of ETH compared to Bitcoin (BTC) and other Layer-1 (L1) blockchains may have led some investors to open bearish (bearish) positions directly in ETH futures. Especially with rival projects such as Solana (SOL) performing better, some investors predict that ETH may lose market dominance.
Ethereum's fundamental problem: Is blockchain activity insufficient?
While short positions in ETH futures reach record levels, one of the key factors suppressing the price movements of ETH is attributed to the stagnation in blockchain activity.
ETH is performing weaker compared to Bitcoin. In the past year, while BTC has risen by 104%, ETH has only gained 5.9% in value. According to data reported by Kobeissi Letter, ETH's recent sharp decline is largely due to short positions. For example, on February 2nd, ETH price dropped by 37% in just 60 hours.
According to some analysts, this situation is related to Ethereum's struggle to compete with other L1 projects. DFG CEO James Wo notes that Ethereum is increasingly facing rival blockchain projects, which is putting pressure on the price of ETH. However, Ethereum still has the largest share in the DeFi ecosystem, which could be a glimmer of hope for price recovery in the future.
Nansen research analyst Aurelie Barthere points out that Ethereum needs more on-chain( on-chain) activity to gain strength in the long run. It is predicted that collaborations with major institutional players on the regulatory side could have a positive impact on the price.
Record short positions in ETH futures indicate ongoing market uncertainty. If there is a sudden upward movement in ETH price, a large short squeeze may occur in the market and ETH price can rise rapidly.