How Will 2025 Pass for Bitcoin? Investment Company Responsible Answered According to Its Own Model

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According to Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, 2025 is expected to be a strong year for Bitcoin, but 2026 could break away from historical market patterns.

Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argued against the idea that Bitcoin is still following its historical four-year cycle, claiming that macroeconomic factors now have more influence on the market than halving events. Hougan recently suggested in a letter to his clients that the traditional model of three strong years followed by a pullback, especially due to changing US policies, may no longer be valid for Bitcoin.

Hougan had previously identified the recurring cycle of Bitcoin in 2022, accurately predicting the market's recovery in 2023 and 2024. Based on past trends, 2025 is expected to be another strong year, but the outlook for 2026 may differ from previous cycles.

Hougan noted that Bitcoin cycles historically have been triggered by significant catalysts, attracted new investors, and gained momentum. However, these cycles eventually led to excessive speculation and corrections as seen in events such as the following:

  • 2014: The collapse of Mt. Gox
  • 2018: SEC's pressure on ICOs

Hougan believes that major regulatory and economic changes shape the price trend of Bitcoin, rather than halvings.

Hougan highlighted Grayscale's legal victory against the SEC in 2023 as a significant catalyst for the current bull run. This decision paved the way for significant institutional investments in the crypto market by enabling the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.

Since the March 2023 decision, Bitcoin has risen from $22,218 to over $102,000. Hougan also noted that Donald Trump's recent executive orders regarding digital assets are another significant factor.

Hougan believes that strong ETF inflows and institutional Bitcoin purchases could propel BTC beyond $200,000 by 2025. However, he acknowledged increasing market leverage with more debt-financed Bitcoin purchases and lending programs fueling speculation.

Despite the volatility risk, Hougan believes that institutional adoption and regulatory support will prevent extreme corrections and indicate a change from previous cycles.

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