ETH future 8-hour trend forecast

1. Consolidation phase (possibility: 50%)
Range: 3013.54 (lower Bollinger band) to 3183.74 (middle Bollinger band).
Basis:
The MACD histogram (0.82) is positive, but DIF (-38.24) and DEA (-39.07) are still at a low level, indicating insufficient momentum.
- The trading volume (Vol:1,086.81) is low, lacking directional breakthrough momentum.
Trading suggestion: Watch or short-term selling at high prices and buying at low prices. Pay attention to the price reaction at the boundary of the range.

2. Upward breakthrough (probability: 30%)
Trigger condition:
After the price stabilizes at the mid-track (3183.74), the MACD histogram continues to expand, and the DIF crosses the DEA to form a golden cross.
Significant increase in trading volume (such as approaching the historical peak of 26,710.79).
Target level: Test upper rail 3353.94, or even challenge the high average cost level of 3,679.29.
Verification signal:
If RSI (currently 0.86) falls back to a reasonable range (such as 0.5-0.7) and then rises again, it confirms the upward momentum.
Breakthroughs require concentrated buying volume.

3. Downward retracement (possibility: 20%)
Trigger condition:
The price fell below the lower rail of 3013.54, and the MACD histogram turned negative.
RSI (0.86) quickly fell back into oversold territory (below 0.3).
Target level: Test the previous low point 2,964.05, or even further downward.
Verification signal:
Volume expands when falling, indicating bearish dominance.
The average cost support zone (3,023.01-3,104.50) has been effectively broken through.

Key time nodes and operational strategies
In the first 2 hours: observe if the price fluctuates within the range of 3013-3183. If it does not break through, focus on oscillation strategy.
4 hours in the middle:
If breaking through upwards: try to go long with a light position near 3183, set the stop loss at 3150, and target 3350.
If it falls below: try to short lightly around 3013, stop loss set at 3040, target at 2964.
Last 2 hours: Beware of false breakouts, close positions for observation if the price does not stabilize at key levels.

Risk Warning
False breakout risk: False signals are likely to occur when the Bollinger Bands narrow, and confirmation is needed with trading volume.
Lagging Indicators: MACD and RSI may lag behind price movements. It is recommended to use intraday chart patterns (such as double bottom, head and shoulders) to enhance judgment.

It is suggested to use a small position to test the order, strictly stop loss, and adjust the strategy dynamically according to real-time data.