Didn't they say 'Trump's inauguration will definitely cause Bitcoin to fall'? Analyst K33 changed his tune: selling pressure has been absorbed in advance.

After Trump won the US presidential election in November, BTC quickly reached a new all-time high. However, since mid-December, the headwinds in the overall economy have put pressure on the market. Although analyst K33 previously believed that Trump's inauguration would be an event of 'BTC bullishness exhausted, selling pressure released', analysts have started to re-evaluate their previous expectations due to the recent fall.

K33 Originally thought that the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20th may trigger a BTC sell-off. The reason is that people's expectations for Trump's support for cryptocurrency campaign promises are getting higher, but the Washington political machine is pushing policies at a slow pace.

However, analysts K33 Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday that as the inauguration approaches, the 'sell the news' narrative has become less attractive as the market now tries to assess the inflationary impact of Trump's tariff comments and the potential impact of bullish policies such as tax cuts and cryptocurrencies, which are expected to boost this year's risk asset performance.

BTC fell from its high point and market sentiment has become more conservative.

BTC reached a historical high of just over $108,000 on December 17, but earlier this week it dipped to around $89,000, a cumulative pullback of nearly 18%. This is mainly due to the surge in the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds, a strong US dollar, and rising inflation expectations, which have lowered expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

As of the time of writing, BTC has rebounded, with the current trading price at $97,499. Analyst K33 stated:

The November frenzy has ebbed and flowed, with the S&P 500 index shrinking its post-election gains and BTC hitting a two-month low. Although our monthly outlook originally recommended selling BTC on Trump's inauguration day, we have reconsidered this strategy because the attractiveness of selling BTC on inauguration day has decreased unless market momentum rebounds in the coming days.

Comparing the post-election reactions before Trump's two terms, the S&P 500 initially replicated the market rally in 2016. At that time, the US stock index stabilized at a high point in mid-December and remained in a low volatility state until the inauguration day.

However, this time, after the Fed met on December 18, the trend of US stocks has diverged. According to the analysts:

The market surged in November due to Trump's enthusiasm and continued until mid-December, but since then a conservative and cautious mindset has regained its momentum.

During his first term, Trump often used the stock market performance as a political achievement to emphasize the economic growth associated with policies such as tax cuts, deregulation, and trade agreements. Analysts expect him to continue to make such claims during his second term, 'We expect Trump's impact on BTC to be favorable in the long term.'

The article "Didn't K33 analyst say that "Trump's inauguration BTC will definitely fall"?" The first publication of this article is in "BlockTimes".