President Trump will have to cancel Elon Musk's D.O.G.E right now for the economy to survive

Elon Musk promises to cut $2 trillion from federal spending. His quirky "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), authorized by President Trump, is expected to trim the excess fat in the bloated US budget. However, the harsh realities and fragile economy may force him to cancel the project altogether. Now Elon himself has admitted that this goal is a big blow. Speaking in an interview on X (formerly Twitter), the eccentric billionaire has lowered his target of 2 trillion dollars, saying, "We have a good chance of reaching 1 trillion dollars." Experts quickly reminded him that even this modest target is just a fantasy. The entire discretionary budget is 1.7 trillion dollars. How can you cut 2 trillion dollars from something that isn't even 2 trillion dollars? Hint: you can't. Economic forecast in opposite directions The US economy is not in recession, but it is not necessarily growing. Goldman Sachs estimates the economy will grow by 2.5% in 2025, much higher than the survey of Bloomberg economists, predicting a growth rate of 1.9%. The board of directors is slightly less optimistic when forecasting a 2% growth this year, but even so, it is an increase compared to the previous forecast of 1.7%. S&P Global Ratings also provided the same figure of 2%, all of which is a sigh of relief when compared to the 2.7% in 2024. However, the labor market is cooling down. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.2%, up from the previous year's 3.7%. Job creation is slowing down, averaging about 150,000 jobs per month. Not bad, but clearly the best days are behind. Then comes inflation—falling from the peak of 9.1% in 2022 to a more manageable 3% by the end of 2024. But reaching the coveted 2% target of the Federal Reserve? That's the unicorn everyone is still chasing. Analysts believe it will stabilize there by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the Fed is playing its own game, gradually cutting interest rates. By October 2025, the federal fund rate may stabilize in the range of 3.00–3.25%, a cautious move designed to balance growth and inflation. The incredible dream of DOGE DOGE is considered a gemstone in Trump's economic plans. Elon, co-leading the project with biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, has one job: identify and fix inefficient government spending. Simple, isn't it? Wrong. This department does not have real power. Essentially, it is an advisory board that puts forward ideas into the political vacuum, hoping that Congress or the White House will embrace them. And while Elon's ego may be big enough to shoulder the responsibility, his numbers are not. Cutting 1 trillion dollars means cutting mandatory spending programs such as Medicaid. "Hard" is how Elon describes the consequences of these cuts. Political chaos is more accurate. And let's not forget the wildfires raging across California as we speak. They are forming the costliest wildfire disaster in US history, with damages estimated at $250 to $275 billion. Over 12,000 structures have been destroyed, 24 people have lost their lives, and the rebuilding process will take decades. These costs are not only devastating but also a direct threat to the mission of DOGE. Every dollar spent on disaster relief is a dollar that Elon cannot touch. Tariffs are another unknown. The Trump administration could increase tariffs above the current average of 2%. It may seem small, but even a 1% increase in tariffs could increase inflation by 0.1%. For an economy still struggling with inflation control, this is an issue no one wants to address. Inflation and the Trump effect Inflation is no longer just an economic issue, but now it is also a political issue. Joe Lavorgna, a former economic advisor during Trump's first term, points out that the recent decisions of the Federal Reserve are quite perplexing. In September of last year, they cut interest rates by 50 basis points, believing that the job market was slowing down. But as the number of jobs recovered, they continued to cut 25 basis points in November and December, despite rising inflation. If inflation remains high, Lavorgna warns, the Fed will have no one to blame but itself. Trump's economic growth program depends on keeping inflation low, but party expectations are not helpful. During the Biden administration, the Republican Party prepared for high inflation, while the Democratic Party was more optimistic. Now the roles have reversed. The Republican Party believes that inflation will remain at 0.1% (which is really laughable), while the Democratic Party expects the actual rate to be 4%. If inflation reaches 4%, Trump's policies could collapse under the weight of higher interest rates. Meanwhile, businesses are leaning towards Trump's pro-growth stance. The surge in employment in December may be a direct result of his election victory. Optimistic companies are hiring more. Good for employment, bad for inflation. More jobs mean more spending, and more spending means inflation doesn't disappear. DOGE is a miniature model of Trump's larger economic gamble. The government is trying to maneuver—cutting costs without sacrificing growth. But with the pressure of inflation, natural disasters, and a fragile economy, this is a task almost impossible. Concerns about Elon's influence on the government may also play a role. Trump felt like he had given Elon too much power - especially with rumors of Elon running for president in 2028 - and will still narrow their relationship. DYOR! #Write2Earn #Write&Earn $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)