The Bank of Japan hinted at a rate hike on 1/24. Can BTC and US stocks escape the yen arbitrage closeout this time?

In a speech in Yokohama today, Japan's Central Bank Vice President Ryozo Himi hinted that Central Bank may decide to raise interest rates this month. If Central Bank officially raises interest rates this month, is it likely to trigger another wave of ArbitrageClose Position, similar to the one that caused the collapse of global stock and encryption markets on August 5 last year? (Summary: The yen depreciates 158, hitting a 5-month low, Japan's Central Bank hints that the conditions are ripe for raising interest rates, and experts warn that something big will happen in January) (Background supplement: Japan Central Bank meeting minutes: 2025 may gradually raise interest rates to 1% If inflation meets expectations, the yen depreciates above 157) Japan's Central Bank decided not to raise interest rates at 0.25% in the Intrerest Rate resolution on the 19th of last month Intrerest Rate。 In this regard, the market focused on the Intrerest Rate decision held on the 24th of this month, and it is widely predicted that Central Bank will raise interest rates by 1 yard (0.25%) at the January or March meeting this year. Japanese Central Bank Vice President: There is a possibility of interest rate hikes this month According to the Economic Daily, Japan's Central Bank Vice President Ryozo Ogami hinted in a speech in Yokohama today (14) that Central Bank may raise interest rates in the Intrerest Rate decision this month. He said: "When implementing monetary policy, it is difficult but necessary to judge the appropriate time, and the Board of Governors will discuss whether to raise the policy Intrerest Rate based on the latest outlook for the economy and prices at the policy meeting on the 23rd and 24th. The development of price and inflation expectations, including the economic mechanisms behind them, seems to be roughly on the path of Central Bank's forecast. Then, Ryozo Himino added that if the current development of prices and inflation is as expected by Central Bank, the policy Intrerest rate will be increased accordingly: If this outlook continues, Central Bank will increase the policy Intrerest rate accordingly and adjust the degree of monetary policy easing, as it did in March and July last year." At the same time, Ryozo Himino also said that there are still various risks. Central Bank will not rely solely on inflation data to determine the direction of the Intrerest Rate, but will also consider factors such as domestic wages and the economic strategy of the new US government. The minutes of Japan's Central Bank's October meeting showed that Japan's Central Bank policymakers agreed to raise interest rates gradually if the trend of economic and price inflation is in line with their expectations, and could rise to 1.0% by the end of fiscal 2025 (3 yards this year), echoing the speech of Ryozo Higami No. Will the yen Arbitrage trade still usher in the Close Position tide? On the other hand, the current market is paying more attention to the potential risks of the Arbitrage trading of the Japanese dollar, which is regarded as a huge unexploded bomb that could be detonated, and as the US Federal Reserve slows the pace of interest rate cuts, Japan's Central Bank is cautious about raising interest rates, forming a clear divergence in global Intrerest Rate policy. It should be noted that if Japan's Central Bank raises interest rates this month, it may once again trigger a wave similar to the Japanese yen ArbitrageClose Position that caused the collapse of the global stock market and the encryption market on August 5 last year. However, investors do not have to be too nervous, the market expects the Fed to suspend the pace of interest rate cuts due to the current strong economic data, and Barclays, the second largest bank in the UK, even predicts that the Fed will only cut interest rates by one yard in 2025; Japan's Central Bank's forecast of a three-yard rate hike remains unchanged. In this regard, although there is still room for the yen-dollar Arbitrage difference in 2025, it may be smaller than expected, and the future yen ArbitrageClose Position tide may also be much smaller than the previous one. On August 5, BTC once price drops to $48,900, the S&P 500 index plunged 3%, the biggest one-day drop since September 2022, and the Nikkei 225 index was a big dump of more than 12%, and the global market faced selling pressure. Related stories Japan's economy is too strong! Experts estimate that the probability of interest rate hikes in December exceeds 50%, "If the United States falls sunrise", be careful of the yen, ArbitrageClose Position tide, the reason for the surge in BTC? Japan's Central Bank is rumored not to raise interest rates in December! The yen fell sharply to a 3-week low, clinging to Huida stock for 11 years" The engineer posted a single "big pump 350 times" to make a profit of 500 million yen, which is more profitable than BTC? 〈Japan's Central Bank hints at 1/24 or interest rate hike, BTC, U.S. stocks can escape the yen ArbitrageClose Position tide this time? This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".