The US dollar index rose above 110, US bond yields continued to climb. Barclays: The Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once in June this year.

The US Department of Labor released the latest non-farm employment data last week, showing that the labor market remains strong, further indicating that the Federal Reserve may take a cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Barclays Bank even predicts that there will only be a 1 basis point rate cut in June this year. (Background: US Treasury yields reach new highs in 9 months! Wall Street: 10-year Treasury Intrerest Rate may rise to 5% by the end of the year.) After the US Department of Labor released the non-farm employment report last Friday, which was much higher than expected, it affected the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. In response, analysts at Barclays, the second-largest bank in the UK, predicted that the Fed may only cut rates by 1 basis point this year: Given such strong economic data, we now expect the Fed to cut rates only once in June this year, by 25 basis points, and adjust the federal Benchmark Intrerest Rate range to 4% to 4.25% by the end of the year. At the same time, the Barclays analyst team also stated that although they expect inflation to continue to slow down in the first half of this year, inflation may rebound again in the second half of the year due to the impact of the Trump administration's economic policies. Therefore, after the rate cut in June, the Fed will pause and resume rate cuts in mid-2026 after inflationary pressures further weaken. The US dollar index rose above 110 points. Since October last year, the US dollar index has continued to rise. Last night, the US dollar index even rose above 110 points, reaching a new high since November 2022. It fell to 109.625 at the time of writing. Regarding the strong US dollar, Goldman Sachs has recently further raised its forecast. Goldman Sachs believes that the strong performance of the US economy and Trump's tariff policy may further limit Fed rate cuts. Therefore, the strategy team led by Kamakshya Trivedi stated that the US dollar may rise by another 5% in the next year: We expect the US dollar to continue to rise by 5% in the next year due to the continued strong performance of the US economy and the implementation of new tariff policies. US dollar index. Source: TradingView US Treasury yields rise. On the other hand, US Treasury yields continue to climb. Yesterday, the 10-year Treasury Intrerest Rate rose further to 4.79%, reaching the highest level since November 2023, confirming the prediction of Academy strategist Peter Tchir. US 10-year Treasury Intrerest Rate. Source: Finance M Square In this context, Guy Stear, Head of Developed Market Strategy Research at Amundi Investment Institute, commented: The market is most concerned that the Fed cannot continue to cut interest rates, and this result may push US bond yields to 5% in the next few months. US stocks rise and fall. Recently, due to the uncertainty brought by US economic data and potential economic policies of the Trump administration, the US stock market has continued to be hit. In addition, according to foreign media reports, the first batch of racks with Nvidia's latest chip Blackwell overheated, and there were also malfunctions in the chip connection. Nvidia fell more than 4% intraday and ended the day down 1.97%, dragging down chip stocks (TSMC ADR fell 3.36%). The four major US stock indices opened low yesterday, and the closing prices rose and fell: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 358.67 points (0.86%) to close at 42,297.12 points. The S&P 500 rose 9.18 points (0.16%) to close at 5,836.22 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 73.53 points (0.38%) to close at 19,088.10 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 17.43 points (0.35%) to close at 5,020.04 points. Related reports: Arthur Hayes: The cryptocurrency market is expected to have a big dump on 1/20, and Trump will use a devalued US dollar to boost the US economy. Is the US economy in a severe recession? Analyst: Bankrupt companies are increasing like during the financial crisis. BTC antagonist Peter Schiff: Trump supporting BTC will only weaken the US economy and waste billions of taxpayers' money. (US dollar index rises above 110, US Treasury yields continue to rise) Barclays Bank: The Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once in June.