Bitcoin's Volatile Start: Investors Await Trump's Taking Office - Coin Bulletin

Bitcoin (BTC), which had a strong start to the new year, fell back to the 93,000 dollar range after surpassing the 100,000 dollar level.

In recent weeks, long-term Treasury yields in the US have reached multi-month highs, along with economic data indicating that inflation remains stubbornly high. In particular, the yield on 10-year inflation-indexed bonds rose to 2.29%, the highest level since November 2023. This rise in yields is reducing investments in risky assets as fixed-income assets become more attractive.

“The drop seen in Bitcoin this morning is a result of the reduced possibility of higher yields in the Treasury market and more interest rate cuts this year. Crypto assets generally perform better in more liquid market conditions,” said CF Benchmarks product manager Thomas Erdosi. Erdosi also noted a short-term negativity in the crypto market due to macroeconomic pressures.

Hope Continues in the BTC Options Market

Despite macroeconomic pressures, Bitcoin's Deribit-listed options market remains optimistic. According to Amberdata, the total value of active call options in the Bitcoin options market is $14.87 billion, almost double the active put options. This indicates that investors still have a bullish outlook on the market.

The most popular buying option is the call option at $120,000, which has an open position value of $1.47 billion. Call options at $101,000 and $110,000 levels also have open positions exceeding $1 billion. In contrast, the most popular selling option, the put option at $75,000, has an open position of $595 million. This indicates an optimistic trend in the options market.

Trump’s Effect is Expected

Erdosi expressed that the possibility of President Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, creating a crypto-friendly regulatory environment could positively affect market sentiment. It is suggested that this situation could create a chance for recovery in the market, especially towards the end of January.

However, in the short term, it is expected that Bitcoin and other risk assets will continue to be affected by macroeconomic factors such as the increase in treasury yields and the Fed's hawkish stance. Similar effects have been observed in the stock market, with major indexes such as Nasdaq and S&P 500 losing their gains from the beginning of the year.