BTCprice drops $96,000, Nvidia plunges 6% to bring down US stocks, Fed may only cut interest rates once this year?

BTC fell to a low of $96,176 this morning. Jason Furman, a former senior economist in the Obama administration and current professor at Harvard University, pointed out that if the labor market remains healthy this year, the Fed may only cut interest rates once. (Background: Fed officials: Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest rates, and the overvaluation of US stocks may lead to a significant pullback) The US Department of Labor released the 'Job Vacancies and Labor Turnover Survey' on the 7th, showing that job vacancies at the end of November 2024 increased by 259,000 to 8.098 million from the revised value of 7.839 million in the previous month, reaching a six-month high. In addition, the ISM non-manufacturing index in December last year rose from 52.1 in November to 54.1, exceeding economists' expectations and staying above the 50 boom-bust line, indicating sustained economic expansion, leading to a surge in US bond yields towards 5%, and a comprehensive price drop in the four major US indices, with Nvidia closing down 6.2%, leading to a widespread decline in the technology sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42% (178.2 points) to close at 42,528.36 points, the Nasdaq fell 1.89% (375.3 points) to close at 19,489.68 points, the S&P 500 fell 1.11% (66.35 points) to close at 5,909.03 points, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.84% (97.9 points) to close at 5,212.24 points. BTC price dropped by $96,000, and against the background of the US stock market's fall, it fluctuated sharply, with a low of $96,176 in the early morning. As of the deadline, it was reported at $97,128, a drop of 4.72% in the past 24 hours; Ethereum's decline was even more severe, with a current price of $4,703, down 7.44% in the past 24 hours. Former senior economist in the Obama administration: Interest rate cuts may only happen once this year Against this background, at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association held in San Francisco last week, many economists predicted that the Fed's position may have become more hawkish in the new year, with interest rate cuts this year possibly occurring only once. Among the many economists, former senior economist in the Obama administration (Deputy Director of the National Economic Council), and current professor at Harvard University, Jason Furman pointed out that if the labor market remains healthy this year, the Fed may only cut interest rates once, because the Fed has entered a new phase that requires reasons to support interest rate cuts: last year, the Fed thought everything was fine, so it adopted an attitude of not hesitating to cut interest rates. But if the labor market remains healthy, considering concerns about the outlook for inflation, and whether the federal benchmark interest rate is already in the best position to slow demand, then it is most likely that only one 1-point interest rate cut will happen this year. On the other hand, Furman also forecasted a worse scenario, that is, there may also be a rate hike in 2025: If the annual inflation rate measured by the PCE index, which the Fed likes best, rises above 3% by mid-year, the Fed may consider changing course. The rise of the US economy will slow down, consumer pressure will increase, Trump's plan may not change much, and many things are developing in a more negative direction. CME FedWatch tools show that the probability of the interest rate remaining unchanged at this month's meeting has exceeded 95%. Bitwise: BTC is expected to outperform traditional assets starting this year Due to the limited expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and the potential impact of Trump's economic policies, traditional assets such as US stocks, US bonds, and gold have been affected to varying degrees. However, asset management company Bitwise released a report on the 7th, indicating that BTC still receives on-chain data support in the current market environment, and still believes that BTC is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of this year, and predicts that by 2029, BTC will officially break through $1 million: In December 2024, the cryptocurrency market faced profit retracement, a reduction in institutional positions, and other resistance, and the appreciation of the US dollar and the Fed's policies also led to a slight tightening of the financial environment, but BTC still received on-chain data support. Although short-term risks still exist, long-term bullish factors such as BTC halving and potential BTC reserve strategies support the expectation that BTC will continue to rise in the future. It is expected that starting from 2025, BTC's performance will outperform traditional assets. Related reports Arthur Hayes: BTC is expected to peak in March, suggesting selling and waiting until Q3, already layout in the DeFi field with 7 major tokens Michael Saylor announced that all BTCPrivate Keys will be destroyed after his death, bringing contributions to everyone who owns BTC From $200 to $100,000, memories of BTC players who got on board in 2013. This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media in the dynamic zone.