The probability of establishing BTC reserves within the first 100 days of Trump's presidency has dropped to 31%, with two possible approaches.

According to data from decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, it is believed that Trump's chances of building BTC reserves in his first 100 days in office are only 31%, far lower than the 60% when Trump won the election in early November last year. (Synopsis: The founder of Skybridge Capital broke the news: The Senate will approve the BTC reserve plan!) But the chance of buying 1 million coins is low) (Background supplement: Forbes 2025 blockbuster forecast: G7 or BRICS countries will build BTC reserves, BTCFi significant rise, Stable CoinMarket Cap doubled) As early as before winning the election last November, the new US President Trump promised to build BTC reserves in the United States after officially taking office, which made the entire cryptocurrency community highly anticipated. However, on the eve of Trump's official inauguration on the 20th of this month, according to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, it is believed that Trump's probability of building BTC reserves in his first 100 days in office is only 31%, far lower than the 60% when Trump won the election in early November last year. Source: Polymarket Netizens: The first thing is to guarantee not to sell BTC In this regard, some netizens commented below this prediction that in fact, this is very easy to do, because the US government now holds a large amount of BTC, Trump only needs to sign an executive order after taking office, transfer the BTC in the US Department of Justice Wallet to the new Wallet and guarantee that it will not be sold, which does not require the US government to immediately pay out to buy, But it represents Trump's determination to build BTC reserves. In addition, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital and former White House communications director, also said in an exclusive interview with Bankless Podcast that the US government plans to buy BTC on a large scale, possibly as much as 500,000 BTC, and will pass the Senate for consideration. Scaramucci's central argument in favor of building a strategic BTC reserve is compared to gold, which currently holds about $600 billion in gold reserves, and he believes that even transferring a small portion of it to BTC, or even selling part of it, could strengthen the U.S. economy in the era of digital transformation. However, some experts believe that it is not so simple, from the perspective of the executive order or legislative process in the United States, if Trump wants to implement the BTC strategic reserve, immediately after taking office, let the Cryptocurrency Committee conduct policy research and feasibility assessment, and formally propose a plan after completion, and then it can be carried out through two paths: Path 1: Presidential Executive Order (as soon as the second half of 2025) Directly issuing executive orders after Trump takes office is the fastest way. Because it can bypass conservative and opposition resistance from the US Federal Reserve and Congress, it is also a reference to the draft provided by the "BTC Policy Institute", which directs the US Treasury to use the Forex Stabilization Fund (ESF) to directly allocate BTC. However, this approach, while quick and convenient, has side effects: the Treasury's Forex Stabilization Fund, while not requiring congressional approval, can be limited by congressional investigations and legislation. Executive orders can also be overturned and amended by the next president, so their sustainability and stability are not as good as legislation. Path 2: Congressional legislation (as soon as the second half of 2026) If a more stable legislative path is passed, it will need to go through a longer process, and the bill after the policy research and feasibility assessment by the Cryptocurrency Committee needs to be submitted to Congress and submitted to the Senate Banking Committee for consideration, and then signed and passed by the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the President before the legislation can be formally completed. This process may go through various iterations and is relatively complicated, after all, many conservative lawmakers will definitely raise objections and obstruct, so although a durable and stable bill can be obtained through this path, it will take a long time, at least in the second half of 2026 to 2027. Recently, the encryption industry is pushing Trump's team to issue an executive order on his first day in office next month, launch the cryptocurrency policy reform he promised, and help promote the mainstreaming of encryption, so if the executive order is passed, it may be possible to see the landing of BTC strategic reserves after mid-2025 at the earliest. The Czech Republic considers the establishment of BTC reserves With Trump's proposal to establish BTC reserves, officials in Japan, Russia, and Europe have begun to discuss this possibility, and the well-known American business magazine "Forbes" has previously boldly predicted that in 2025, the G7 group or BRICS countries may establish BTC reserves, thus setting off a global BTC reserve race, so that BTC's status is on par with assets such as gold, forex reserves and sovereign bonds. Just yesterday (7), the governor of the Czech National Bank, Aleš Michl, said in an interview with CNN that it is considering including BTC in the diversified portfolio of the country's forex reserves in the near future, and the government's interest in cryptocurrency is increasing. However, at present, the Czech National Bank has no plans to purchase Encryption assets immediately, and whether it will approve and implement the plan in the future is yet to be voted on by board members. Related reports Japan will build BTC reserves? Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: At present, there is a lack of sufficient information, security and liquidity are the top concerns Michael Sylor throws out the digital asset framework: offset US Treasuries with BTC reserves! CryptoQuant says feasible but challenging US hard to build BTC reserves! Expert: The Fed is currently losing $1 billion a week and has no money to buy BTC (Trump has a 31% chance of building BTC reserves within 100 days of taking office, two possible ways) This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dynamic Trends - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".