BTC once again surpasses $100,000! Analyst: Don't be overly optimistic, watch out for 'this risk'

In the first full trading week of 2025, BTC (BTC) once again broke through the symbolic $100,000 mark, continuing the Rebound trend from the beginning of the new year. However, in the market atmosphere of renewed long positions, analysts remind investors not to have excessive expectations for a "soaring market like last year", and the January meeting decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be a key factor affecting the future market direction, which may trigger intense market turbulence at that time.

According to CoinGecko market data, BTC skyrocketed after breaking through $99,000 last night, reaching a high of $102,512, the highest level since December 19th last year, with a daily increase of up to 4.3%.

As of the time of writing, BTC's momentum has consolidated, trading at $101,738, up 2.6% in the past 24 hours; Ether has risen slightly by 0.5% to $3,685; BNB has increased by 2.3% to $728.93; Solana (SOL) has risen by 0.7% to $217.42.

Funds are flowing back, and the cryptocurrency market is booming again.

Looking back at the end of last year, BTC experienced a rebound after the rise brought by Trump's victory, but there was a sell-off due to profit-taking at the end of the year. In addition, the Christmas and New Year holidays resulted in a quiet market. BTC and Ethereum spot ETFs both experienced capital outflows, causing BTC prices to fall to a low of $91,000, a drop of nearly 15% from the historical high.

Now that the holidays are over, investors and traders are returning one after another, and news of companies increasing their holdings of BTC is constantly coming in, further boosting market sentiment.

At the beginning of the new year, MicroStrategy announced its purchase of an additional 1,020 BTC; KULR Technology Group, a Texas-based energy management company, also announced its investment of $21 million to buy BTC.

On the other hand, BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $908 million last Friday, indicating that market demand is picking up.

At the same time, the number of open contracts in the BTC futures market is significantly lower than in mid-December last year, indicating that the recent price Rebound is mainly driven by spot buying, rather than leveraged exchanges.

According to James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk, the funding rate in the futures market is also maintained at a 'neutral level', indicating that the rebound of BTC this time is not accompanied by an 'overly speculative' sentiment.

The Federal Reserve's policy is the biggest variable, and there are still challenges in the short-term BTC market.

Cryptocurrency trading company Wincent's senior director Paul Howard said:

Having experienced the situation of institutions adjusting their balance sheets at the end of last year and reducing hedging before the holidays, it is inevitable that the currency price will rise and demand will rebound at the beginning of the new year. We expect that 2025 will be a very optimistic and positive year for cryptocurrencies and the new government.

However, Paul Howard also warned: 'Although BTC returning to $100,000 is exciting, the current price level should not be overly interpreted, and the market situation in the next two weeks may intensify volatility.'

Cryptocurrency analysis firm 10x Research also mentioned in its latest report that the cryptocurrency market is expected to continue its Rebound trend in early January, especially as the Trump inauguration ceremony approaches. However, by the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy meeting at the end of the month, it is feared that it will face heavy selling pressure.

Last December, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's tough talk put pressure on the market. 10x Research pointed out that even if inflation cools further in the coming months, the speed at which the Fed turns may not be as expected by the market, which may bring short-term volatility risk to the market.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said: "The Fed's policy statement is still a key variable affecting the market, especially when inflation issues re-emerge, this impact will be more obvious. We expect inflationary pressures to continue to ease this year, but the Fed may need more time to respond to this change." He further added:

Although the market sentiment was optimistic at the beginning of the year, it is not advisable for investors to have excessive expectations for a surge like what happened in January to March and September to December 2024.

BTC returns to $100,000! Analyst: Don't be overly optimistic, pay attention to this risk. This article was first published on Blocktimes.