Altseason: Everything You Need to Know

Altcoin season, or altseason, is a period in which altcoins experience stronger growth than Bitcoin. In other words, it is the time when the price of Bitcoin ($BTC) increases, but its dominance (BTC.D) decreases. We will consider the start of altseason as the point in the cycle when the dominance of Bitcoin reaches a local peak, and the end of altseason will be marked by a new all-time high for the TOTAL2 index (market capitalization of the top 125 coins, excluding Bitcoin). Looking through the lens of previous replacement seasons Until now, we have only seen two altcoin seasons, while there are three Bitcoin cycles. The main reason is that the first Bitcoin cycle did not have a mature altcoin market. It's hard to believe, but the total market capitalization of all altcoins remained below 1 billion dollars for a long time! It wasn't until March 1, 2017, that we saw the first significant wave of altcoin growth. At that time, Bitcoin's dominance dropped from about 96%, and in less than a year, it reached about 36% on January 5, 2018. Bitcoin relinquished about 60% of its market dominance to altcoins, leading to a total altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2) of $470 billion! The first major altcoin season lasted 310 days, with the index increasing by about $470 billion — a 56.425% increase (or 564 times). The second global altcoin season will occur in the next cycle. At the start, the total market capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL2) was $225 billion. On January 3, 2021, Bitcoin's dominance, which peaked at around 73%, began to decrease slowly, ultimately plummeting to its lowest point on September 8, 2022. However, only half of the 614 days of decline are counted as the altcoin season, as the other half occurred during Bitcoin's price decline phase. The peak of the TOTAL2 index occurred on November 10, 2021, exactly matching Bitcoin's price peak. In total, the second altcoin season lasted 309 days, with a market cap increase of $1.5 trillion — a 650% increase (or 6.5 times). The interesting thing here is the coincidence: both seasonal transitions from different cycles last almost exactly the same amount of time, to the day! The first transition lasts 310 days, and the second transition lasts 309 days. But that's not even the most surprising discovery we've made. The magical effect of Halving on the cycle time In previous studies, we have examined the total duration of a market cycle. I would like to reiterate: we found that in all three previous cycles, the halving occurred at 62% of the cycle completion time. There seems to be some kind of "magic" when it comes to the market structure. Both global altcoin seasons we described occurred simultaneously with the halving day. During the (II) cycle, the halving event took place on July 9, 2016 and the altcoin season started on March 1, 2017 - 235 days later. Please provide the text to be translated. In cycle (III), the halving event took place on May 11, 2020, and the altcoin season started on January 3, 2021 - 237 days later. Please provide the text to be translated. And here comes the most interesting part: In our previous article, we predicted that the peak of the current cycle (IV), based on the model of previous cycles, will occur around October 18, 2025. Now, if we take the halving date of this cycle, April 19, 2024, and add 235 days, we will reach December 10, 2024, marking the potential start of the next altseason. Very close to the trend acceleration point we predicted earlier. But what's even more interesting is that if we add up 310 days (the typical altseason time from previous cycles), we get ... October 18, 2025! Therefore, using two different approaches, analyzing price action on multiple different tools (BTC, TOTAL2, BTC.D), we arrived at the same date for cycle top: October 18, 2025. Based on our analysis, this will be the simultaneous peak for both Bitcoin and the TOTAL2 index. To sum up the timing of the replacement season in the current cycle, based on the model of previous seasons: The altcoin season is expected to start on December 10, 2024, about 235 days after the halving (when we may also see a new peak in Bitcoin dominance). The altcoin season will last for 310 days and end when Bitcoin reaches its peak growth on October 18, 2025. Please provide the text to be translated. Please note that this is not a prediction but the result of an objective analysis of market structure according to cycles. There is no guarantee that the patterns of previous cycles will repeat exactly, so do not consider these days as immutable. The timing is clear, but what will the Altcoin season bring to the growth of Altcoin? If we look at the 10 best projects in terms of performance from the previous cycle, a pattern emerges - most of the coins that performed well in the third year of the cycle (2020) made parabolic moves in the last year (2021): Please provide the text to be translated. Of course, there are exceptions (such as SAND and KDA), but overall, the previous cycle shows that betting on relatively strong players is more reasonable than hunting for "wild horses". It is very likely that the current cycle will follow a similar logic, with strong projects continuing to dominate. Who are the main competitors for Parabol's growth in this cycle? If we use the table and filter on CryptoRank.io to sort all coins by price change up to the present time (YTD) and add a filter for market capitalization over 100 million dollars, we will see that 7 out of the top 10 strongest coins this year are meme coins. Please provide the text to be translated. From a rational perspective, we have reason to believe that the altcoin season can bring the highest profits to leading companies in this field. However, if you're still hesitant about investing in meme coins or prefer tokens from larger technology projects, let's take a look at the top 10 projects of this year with a market capitalization of over $1 billion, excluding meme coins: Please provide the text to be translated. Conclusion part To summarize, let's analyze the timing and logic of previous cycles and answer these key questions: When will altseason begin? According to our calculations, it will start after 235 days from halving, which is on December 10, 2024. How long will it last? According to our estimate, it will last for 310 days, until October 18, 2025. Which coins will perform best in the alt season? Most likely, the coins that perform well before the alt season. Currently, the main candidates for the biggest increase are the top meme coins, along with projects in the Blockchain, AI infrastructure, and CeFi categories. Let's hope this cycle will repeat the structure of previous cycles and we will witness the long-awaited third global alt season.