Conversation with Trader Sa Bih Brother: How to Capture Alpha by Analyzing Token Insider Information and Make a Fortune of 5000 Times by Buying $MOODENG in the Middle?

The following text is compiled from the series of Twitter Space #TraderTalks, hosted by FC, founding partner of SevenX Ventures, Twitter @FC_0X 0

Guest of this issue: SaBiBro, Founder of CashCashBot, Twitter @SaBiBro 666

Sa Bi Ge's trading journey: from exchange to on-chain strategy transformation

Sa Bi Ge, the pioneer of on-chain data-driven trading. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency field in 2017 and joined a mainland exchange in 2019, working in its listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and in-depth project due diligence (DD). This experience has given him a deep industry understanding and laid a solid foundation for data analysis.

In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. In the early days, he focused on developing NFT application projects. However, as the NFT market gradually cooled down, he keenly observed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, focusing on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analysis tools and trading robots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.

Sa Bi Ge's trading strategy has distinct characteristics: not focusing on narrative valuation, but paying attention to on-chain monitoring and strict stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear stop-loss and take-profit strategies, trading can avoid the interference of subjective emotions.

At the same time, he also pointed out that the trading logic needs to be continuously optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behavior of smart money on the chain, then expanded the focus to team manipulation behavior (conspiracy groups), and then to the behavior of key main force addresses of individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continuously improves the accuracy of trading decisions.

Currently, Saibi Brother's main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. In addition, the recent outstanding performance of #Moodeng has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000-fold return in the short term. But for Saibi Brother, the significance of $MOODENG is not just about profit.

The real value of MOODENG lies in verifying the effectiveness of its data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's main addresses, he confirmed the trading theory of 'following the main force'. This practical result not only enhances the credibility of its strategy, but also provides valuable experiential support for future trading decisions.

How to use data and discipline to win in trading?

During the trading process, Sa Bi Ge emphasizes the standardized strategy of "doubling the capital and cutting the loss", which is the core of its risk management. This strategy avoids market sentiment disturbances with clear rules and verifies the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.

In trading, maintaining a win rate of 33% or higher can achieve positive EV. For example:

• Take Profit Scenario: Sell all assets after doubling, achieving 100% profit.
• Stop-loss scenario: Sell all assets after a 50% loss.

Based on the above assumptions, when the winning rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns increase positively. Sa Bi Ge's strategy is based on probability and emphasizes maintaining a stable mindset to avoid being swayed by short-term market fluctuations in making trading decisions.

At the same time, the Saibi team has developed a series of tools that are data-centric, providing users with deep insights into market hotspots and main force behavior:

Token Insider Analysis (CashCash Bot)

Analyze the token holding structure and address behavior through big data. Its core functions include:

• Main Behavior Identification: Select addresses with transfer associations or collective transaction characteristics and classify them as 'gang' or 'main cluster'.
• Snapshot and Trend Analysis: Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the concentration of token holdings, identifying whether the main force is accumulating funds.
• Behavioral model optimization: Combining the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or coin mixers) and the trend of on-chain fund flow to form precise predictions for main operations.

FOMO CALL signal

This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on a database of thousands of smart money addresses accumulated by the team. When a group of addresses with excellent historical records collectively buys a certain token in a short period of time in the market, FOMO CALL will send a signal. This signal can help users quickly capture market hotspots and determine whether the token has potential for short-term upside.

These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the main force of a token has reached a high level of accumulation, and at the same time, the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of smart money, it usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combined with strategies such as doubling down and stop loss.

How to capture the main force trend through data and take action?

In the cryptocurrency market, the main force profits through absorption and distribution, during this process, the on-chain holding behavior will inevitably change. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavior patterns of the main force through data. For example, during the absorption period, the main force will exhibit specific on-chain behaviors, which can be aggregated and converted into trading signals.

However, when more people adopt similar strategies, the main force may adjust their strategies or even hide their behavior. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be constantly adjusted and optimized to identify possible hidden behavior of the main force. Sa Bi Ge believes that this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is the key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.

The strategy of Sabeigeo starts with tracking 'smart money', these addresses usually achieve a winning rate of over 40% in the market and achieve significant returns. By using tools to filter out these addresses, he and his team have established their own DAO and monitoring list to continuously monitor a group of addresses with excellent performance.

The core methods of strategy include:

• Collective Action Recognition: The team's monitoring identified that certain address clusters are engaged in synchronized operations, including collective fundraising and distribution. This pattern forms the basis of the strategy.
• Position Control: When following the main force, avoid entering the top 100 position list to keep a low profile and avoid affecting the main force's trading rhythm. Usually, the position bought does not exceed 0.5% of the market value of the token.
• Signal response: When the clusters in the monitoring list collectively start to enter a certain token, the strategy follows up with small-scale explorations to avoid prematurely exposing its own behavior.

Strategy Case: Moodeng's Trading Process

MOODENG's successful transaction is an important milestone for the SaBi team. In September 2024, the team monitored a large-scale entry of an address cluster with long-term outstanding performance into MOODENG and quickly attracted funds. Following the team's past trading methods, the team maintained small-scale purchases and gradually followed up.

During the trading process, the main force tests the market's sentiment through multiple boosts and callbacks, while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. Sa Big Brother monitors the changes in the holding ratio of these main force addresses in real time and finds that the main force will absorb funds again after each callback. This phenomenon has strengthened the team's confidence in MOODENG.

In the end, MOODENG rose from a small market value at the beginning to a market value of several hundred million. The team not only gained high returns, but also verified the trading theory of 'following the main force' through this process.

How to seize the capital rotation opportunities in the crypto market?

The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of capital attention varies at different times:

Mainstream Coin Rotation: Funds may be concentrated in mainstream assets such as BTC, ETH, etc. At this time, there is a lack of on-chain liquidity and trading volume is small. Please input the text to be translated. Emerging Public Chains and Hotspot Switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent transition from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Solana has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low gas fees.

Meme track and narrative shift: In more segmented tracks, such as Meme tokens, funds will also rotate due to the update of the launchpad or the change of the narrative. For example, from the high-frequency PVP market of Solana to new projects on the Base chain, the focus of market funds keeps shifting.

Using on-chain data tools like Dune, the SaBi team monitors on-chain transaction volume and fund flow in real time to assist decision-making. For example, recent fund rotation indicates that emerging on-chain virtual economies (such as AI Agent, Virtuals) have become hotspots, prompting the team to adjust positions in a timely manner to follow the fund trend.

Why can calm and discipline determine the success or failure of trading?

Bull markets provide plenty of opportunities, but also come with high risks. In such a market, it is especially important to stay calm and disciplined: Please provide the text to be translated. Independent judgment: Sa Bi Ge emphasizes that trading should be based on verification strategies, rather than catering to market sentiment. He points out that emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily confuse traders with the narrative of an 'eternal bull market', leading to excessive optimism.

Timely Profit Taking: A major pitfall in a bull market is the reluctance to sell. Even in a rising market, taking profits is key to maintaining long-term advantage. Prioritizing risk control over chasing higher returns, even if it means missing out on higher points.

Support of Stable Cash Flow: Cash flow is the reassuring pill for cool-headed trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through main business or quantitative funds can reduce reliance on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.

During a bull market, traders often face anxiety, including fear of missing opportunities, lower-than-expected returns, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response, Brother Saobi also shared his coping strategies:

Focus on Trading Framework: Even if a trade is profitable beyond the framework, it is not considered successful. The essence of trading lies in verifying strategies and refining cognition, rather than pursuing temporary gains.

Establish a calm communication environment: Avoid emotional signal interference and communicate with calm and rational trading partners. Especially in a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.

牢记市场的Periodical: Saji Ge pointed out that the bull market is not "forever", but a 一次漚与风险并存的周期。 即使有强烈的看涨情绪,也需要警惕风险,特别是当市场中只出现单一叙事且没有明确支撑逻辑时。

How to quickly improve cognitive level?

Sa Bi brother believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading circles, and exchanging with people of recognized cognition can significantly accelerate one's cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking through the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding people is an important way to improve oneself.

在交易和创业的过程中,他通过不断学习他人的成功经验与方法,寻找属于自己的突破点。 The shadow of the communication between the people is imperceptible. 身边成功人的行动和结果能激励自己thinking,并进一步优化自己的路径。 He advocates "upward socialization", through the people of the show to each other, and to find more possibilities.

He also mentioned that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" is a book that has a profound impact on his financial mindset. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth, teaching him to think about wealth management from the perspective of "making money work for him." He mentioned that this book breaks the traditional notion of "stable job" in education and inspires him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.

In addition to books, his progress also benefits from other sources of knowledge. For example:

1. On-chain Analysis KOL

• Ai 姨 @ai_ 9684 xtpa:以链上数据分析为核心,提供深入的市场洞察。
• 麦总 @Michael_Liu 93 :以市场行为和人性分析为基础,从另一个角度解释主力的行为逻辑。

2. Social Media and Community: Quickly capture market trends by following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, and discuss new directions and business opportunities with team members.

In addition, Sa Bi Ge believes that the integration of knowledge between Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2 and explore how to replicate their successful models in Web3. This cross-disciplinary thinking keeps him at the forefront of discovering new tracks.

Summary and Suggestions

Data-Driven and Continuous Optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been proven to be feasible in practice, but they require continuous dynamic optimization. In addition, whether it is the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switch of track narratives, sensitivity and adaptability need to be maintained.

Patience: Successful trading is not based on strategy, but also requires a firm heart. 无论牛市还是熊市,遵循交易规则、保持独立判断,才能赢得长期优势。

Establishing a Cognitive and Cash Flow Pillar: With stable cash flow as the foundation, traders can face market volatility with a more composed attitude. By constantly learning and upgrading their circle, they can always stay at the forefront of knowledge.