BTC is expected to break $200,000! Financial Times' comprehensive forecast for 2025: Trump launches trade war, Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, US stock market growth slows down..

The Financial Times released its annual forecast for a series of events in 2025 yesterday (31), focusing on international politics, economics, energy and other issues, as well as the current hot AI and BTC. The original text is now compiled as follows. (Synopsis: Galaxy 2025 Cryptocurrency Big Prediction: BTC rushes to $185,000 at the end of the year, ETH breaks through 5,500, DeFi explodes) (Background supplement: year-end forecast: 4 markets and 11 opportunities in 2025) In the face of a new year, the Financial Times released its annual forecast for a series of events in 2025 yesterday (31), focusing on the economic policies of President-elect Trump after taking office. The possibility of reconciliation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the US Federal Reserve's Intrerest Rate resolution this year, artificial intelligence (AI), BTC, etc., the original text is now compiled as follows. You are also welcome to visit Taiwan Blockchain "30 Most Influential People of the Year": 2025 Market Key Forecasts, Web3 Trend Analysis 1. Will Trump launch an all-out tariff war? Overall, there is a high probability that it will. We can say that at least half of U.S. imports will be subject to tariffs of at least 10% by the end of the year. No one can really read Trump, but he will certainly hit imports from China, which account for about 15% of total U.S. imports. 2. Will there be a truce between Ukraine and Russia? Yes. But the United States must impose tougher sanctions and increase support for Kiev to persuade Moscow to seriously engage in peace talks. In exchange for a U.S.-backed security environment, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would agree to de facto rather than de jure Russian control over the territories it currently occupies and attempt some territorial exchanges, though Ukraine's accession to NATO will eventually be shelved. 3. Will the U.S. Intrerest Rate be lower by the end of the year than it is now? It won't. Trump's tax and tariff policies, as well as his tough attitude towards illegal immigrants, will increase the stickiness of inflation in the United States. So the Fed must be cautious. At the same time, Central Bank in Europe and Central Bank in the United Kingdom will continue the path of interest rate cuts, which will cause further divergence between the United States and Europe. 4. Will Macron remain president of France? Meet. But when the question was asked, it itself showed that Macron was in a vulnerable position. With about 30 months left in his second term, Macron is paying the price for his decision to call snap elections in the summer, which ended in defeat for his camp. 5. Will the U.S. Stock Seven Decline? No, but they won't go higher either. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Huida, TSL, and Alphabet, reflecting the dynamism of the U.S. private sector, investors' pursuit of AI, and U.S. leadership in technology, will continue in 2025, and the incoming Trump administration will essentially be the takeover of the stagnant political world by the tech-led, vibrant private sector. However, there are three major problems that will limit their further expansion: 1) a sharp increase in capital spending could hurt profitability; 2) the growing AI bubble; 3) Sky-high valuations have prompted investors to look to smaller tech companies as alternatives. 6. Will China's export prices fall further? Yes. The competitiveness of Chinese companies, especially in high-tech manufacturing, means that overall, China's export prices (in renminbi terms) are likely to fall further sharply. In October 2024, China's export price index fell by 5.2% year-on-year, and in some months of 2025, it may be a big dump of another 10%. 7. Will Musk fall out with Trump? It won't. Before Trump took office, Musk's personal net worth soared by about two-thirds due to the expected imminent easing of regulatory policies, which had pushed Musk's companies to rise. 8. Will Germany relax its debt limits? It will. As Germany faces huge spending needs, especially in the defense sector, along with economic stagnation, calls for easing debt limits are growing. As one of the key reasons for the collapse of the Olaf Scholz government, debt limits have become one of the most central issues in the upcoming elections in February. 9. Will the bond market crash? It won't. At a time when debt levels are already high, investors will be highly cautious about any sign that Trump is easing lending and urging tax cuts. The loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries would have a disastrous impact on U.S. economic markets, including the stock market, so much so that Trump is unlikely to be here to test investors' sensitive nerves. 10. Will China's carbon emissions fall? Due to huge solar resources and increased use of electric vehicles, coupled with a sluggish real estate market, China's carbon emission levels in 2024 are likely to be the same or slightly higher than in 2023. But with energy demand rebounding, Xi's economic stimulus in 2025 could offset the contribution of solar, electric vehicles and others to carbon reduction. 11. Will the UK Labour government keep its promise not to raise taxes further? For now, yes. But in fact, the performance of opposition lawmakers is telling us that this is not a stable promise. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer used various forms of language in their October proposals, providing a respite after the £40bn tax increase. 12. Will Israel and the United States attack Iranian nuclear power plants? It won't. After a year of geopolitical conflict, Israel has become bolder, while Iran has become relatively vulnerable. But Israel may need U.S. support to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure, and Trump is likely to remain cautious about that. 13. Will BTC break $200,000? Yes. BTC broke $100,000 in December alone, and while a further doubling may seem like an exaggeration, why is it impossible? The Trump team is embracing Cryptocurrency wholeheartedly, which has already driven Cryptocurrency's rise after the election. In a friendlier regulatory environment, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to end aggressive lawsuits against cryptocurrency companies and establish clear rules that will make it easier and safer for Wall Street and asset managers to hold and trade cryptocurrency. Institutional inflows coupled with not having to worry about regulatory enforcement will only push up the price of BTC. 14. Will India's GDP surpass Japan's? No, India's growth will slow. 15. Will electric vehicles capture more than a quarter of the global automotive market? No, consumer interest in electric vehicles outside of China has waned, and 2025 will also be a difficult time for electric vehicles. But to meet stricter emissions rules in Europe and the UK's EV sales targets, automakers will also launch more types of EVs and find ways to drop prices. With the price of electric vehicles on par with automobiles, China will still drive the market growth. However, the biggest uncertainty is in the United States, where the incoming Trump administration is likely to slow down the transition to electric vehicles. 16. Will Argentine President Javier Milei remove exchange controls? It will. Fearing a spike in inflation and a lack of reserves, the liberal president has so far refused to lift restrictions on how much foreign currency Argentine individuals and businesses can buy. By 2025, though, he might take the plunge and give it a try. ...