When will the US 'BTC strategic reserve' be implemented as soon as possible? Pay attention to 'these few time points'

Question

Original author: Mu Mu, vernacular Block chain

Since Trump's victory in early November, the cryptocurrency market has entered a strong expectation of a "US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve". Obviously, the market will be highly focused on the implementation of this promise after Trump takes office in 2025, and some analysts bluntly say that this matter will break the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle, that is, any future "interlude" may lead to violent market turmoil. What we can do now is to focus on its progression dynamics, predict the possible landing time nodes in advance, and prepare accordingly.

01 Latest Progress

The 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' was actually proposed and discussed in the United States before the presidential election. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the "BITCOIN Act of 2024" as early as July 31, 2024, suggesting the purchase of 200,000 bitcoins per year, reaching 1 million within five years.

Later, during the election process, Trump promised to become the "Cryptocurrency President" in his speech at the Bitcoin conference, and the industry hopes he will fulfill this promise by creating a Bitcoin inventory through executive orders to ensure that the industry can access banking services, and establish a cryptocurrency commission.

On December 17, 2024, the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) (note: an unofficial organization dedicated to Bitcoin policy research, but still an important think tank for decision-makers on Bitcoin-related issues) recently released a draft executive order, attempting to provide reference opinions for Trump's 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' executive order framework. The draft explicitly proposes: recommending to use 1%-5% of the national debt assets to purchase Bitcoin to form a long-term reserve. Led by the Treasury Department, in collaboration with the Federal Reserve, gradually establish reserves, etc.

On December 19, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (expected to continue his term after Trump takes office) expressed a cautious view at a press conference, stating that the Federal Reserve has no intention to participate in any government plan to hoard Bitcoin. Such matters fall within the jurisdiction of Congress, and the Federal Reserve has not sought to change existing laws to allow holding Bitcoin.

From the latest developments, despite the conservative views of the Federal Reserve Chairman, the nomination of a crypto-friendly U.S. Treasury Secretary by Trump, and the rapid implementation of 'Presidential Executive Orders' after taking office, these will not affect the Trump team's continued efforts to include Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves plan.

02 Fastest Landing Time

Given that the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' is not a small issue, and it is not something that can be executed immediately by the President of the United States, we will not immediately see its implementation. From the perspective of the country's executive orders or legislative process, if Trump wants to implement the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, he should immediately have the Cryptocurrency Committee conduct policy research and feasibility assessment after taking office, formally propose a plan upon completion, and then proceed through two possible paths:

Path 1: Presidential Executive Order (fastest by the second half of 2025)

After taking office, Trump's direct issuance of executive orders is the fastest path, as it can bypass resistance from conservative and opposition forces such as the Federal Reserve and Congress, and also refers to the draft provided by the 'Bitcoin Policy Institute', instructing the US Treasury to directly allocate Bitcoin from the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).

However, although this method is fast and convenient, it also has side effects. Although the Foreign Exchange Stabilization Fund of the Ministry of Finance does not require the approval of the Congress, it can be investigated and legislatively restricted by the Congress. Executive orders can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so its durability and stability are not as good as legislation.

Path 2: Congressional Legislation (fastest in the second half of 2026)

If a more stable legislative path is to be taken, a longer process is required. After the cryptocurrency committee conducts policy research and feasibility assessments, the bill must be submitted to the Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee before being passed by the Senate, House of Representatives, and signed by the President. Finally, the legislation can be formally completed.

This process may go through various twists and turns and be relatively complex. After all, many conservative lawmakers are sure to raise objections and obstruct, so although a lasting and stable bill can be passed through this path, it will take a long time, at least until the second half of 2026 to 2027 to possibly come to fruition.

Recent news indicates that the cryptocurrency industry is pushing for Trump's team to issue executive orders on his first day in office next month to initiate the promised cryptocurrency policy reforms and promote the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, through these executive orders, we may see the implementation of Bitcoin strategic reserves as early as mid-2025 or later.

03 Several important time nodes

During the "process" of the relevant executive order or bill of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, the following time points may have a significant impact on the market:

On January 20, 2025, before and after the Trump inauguration ceremony

Trump will officially take office on this day, and from this time on, he will be able to officially start issuing orders. This time node will mark the beginning of the new president's administration, and related policy trends may gradually emerge. The market will closely follow the inauguration speech and the issuance of its early executive orders. Trump has invited many guests to the inauguration ceremony, which is expected to be quite lively, and the financial markets will also give high attention.

By mid-2025, complete the policy research phase

According to the timeline, the policy research of the Crypto Committee is expected to be completed in the first half to the middle of 2025, and a feasibility report and draft on Bitcoin reserves will be submitted. Then Trump can sign an executive order. This marks the official launch of the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve".

In the second half of 2025 to early 2026, the detailed rules and potential congressional tug-of-war will be implemented

Signing relevant executive orders, relevant framework certifications, the US Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and other relevant departments will start to formulate specific implementation rules, including Bitcoin procurement methods, reserve ratios, asset management rules, etc., and then start formal implementation.

During this period, it should not be too smooth, and opposition members of the parliament will join the obstructionist ranks and pull back and forth repeatedly.

Finally, if everything goes smoothly and the Bitcoin reserve strategy brings objective 'benefits', it may further promote legislation, which will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market.

04 Summary

"Bitcoin strategic reserve" road seems to be full of twists and turns, and it is not something that can be achieved in a day or two. It will take at least half a year. But no matter what, Trump's "US Bitcoin strategic reserve" has brought good expectations and also "set a good example" to promote the research and exploration of the feasibility of Bitcoin reserves by central banks, financial institutions, and listed companies around the world. Although there may still be many uncertainties in policy details and final implementation time, we still need to follow up and pay attention to key time nodes and make timely adjustments.

(The above content is excerpted and reproduced with authorization from partner MarsBit, original link | Source: Baihua Blockchain)

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