BTC Supercycle is coming? Analyst: Trump's BTC reserve, global corporate frenzy may break the destiny of the Halving bull and bear

With the imminent inauguration of the U.S. president-elect Trump, he may sign executive orders on his first day in office or promote legislation during his term to establish a BTC reserve. Many people follow, and this move is expected to break the "prosperity-bust Halving cycle" that occurs every 4 years, causing BTC to enter a "Supercycle". (Background: The full text of the "U.S. BTC Strategic Reserve" draft: Managing BTC as a permanent national asset) (Background: Ohio lawmakers propose BTC reserve bill: the speed of USD depreciation is accelerating, and BTC is needed to protect tax revenue) U.S. President-elect Trump has previously promised to establish a BTC strategic reserve. Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming also proposed a BTC reserve bill earlier this year, requesting the U.S. to purchase 1 million BTC. Meanwhile, similar proposals have appeared in Russia, Thailand, and Germany, possibly signaling the start of a BTC reserve competition. Is the Supercycle approaching? Cointelegraph reported that if governments around the world rush to establish BTC reserves, some in the market are optimistic that the "prosperity-bust cycle" of BTC's Halving every four years will be broken, and the coin market will enter a continuously rising "Supercycle". Alex Krüger, founder and economist of Asgard Markets, believes that the results of the U.S. election lead him to believe that "BTC is very likely to enter a Supercycle". He thinks that BTC's unique situation can be compared to gold. From 1971 to 1981, gold soared from $35 per ounce to $850, as then-U.S. President Nixon terminated the Bretton Woods system and depegged the U.S. from the gold standard. Alex Krüger does not rule out the possibility of BTC experiencing a Bear Market like in past cycles, but he urges cryptocurrency investors to "stop comparing this cycle to past cycles" because this time may be different. The danger of the Supercycle theory However, the report also pointed out that during each BTC Bull Market period, a narrative of "this time is different" has emerged, each around the adoption of mainstream and institutional use, but ultimately all ended with the collapse of coin prices and entering a long-term Bear Market. For example, during the 2013-2014 Bull Market period, the Supercycle theory believed that BTC would become an alternative asset to fiat coins, attracting international attention; during the 2017-2018 cycle, hopes were pinned on mainstream financial adoption of BTC; during the 2020-2021 cycle, when technology companies such as MicroStrategy, Square, and TSL bought BTC, the Supercycle theory believed that many technology companies would follow suit. However, in each cycle, the narrative of the Supercycle ultimately did not materialize, so betting on the Supercycle theory may be very dangerous. Chris Brunsike, partner at Placeholder and former ARK Invest blockchain product manager, described the BTC Supercycle as a "collective fantasy". However, if the U.S. BTC reserve bill is passed, it may trigger a competition among countries to hoard BTC. Basel Ismail, CEO of Blockcircle, said that the passage of this bill would be "one of the most bullish events in cryptocurrency history" because "it will catalyze a wave of competitive BTC purchases". Therefore, veteran cryptocurrency investor Chris Dunn still believes that the Supercycle is coming, and he is optimistic that the frenzy of competition purchases based on fear of missing out by various countries may completely change the current cryptocurrency market cycle.