#BTC# ETC #AI# I took a look at the dynamic comment section and there are still friends who are worried that this Bull Market is over. If I have time today, I will talk again about my own views on the current market.

This Bull Market started from the bottom in January 23 years ago. If we take 15700 as the bottom, BTC has risen more than 6 times so far. During this period, there were two mid-term consolidations, breaking through two high points, one at 73,000 and the other at 104,000.
Up to now, some old leek vegetables believe that the Bull Market is over. The reason is that the new high has been achieved, and the altcoins have also had two rounds of Bull Market (March-April and November-December of this year). The cycle rule of breaking the new high by halving every 4 years has been broken. Currently, there is no incremental capital inside and outside the market, and there is no large-scale FOMO phenomenon. The heat of the cryptocurrency market has declined, so the last Bull Market frenzy of BTC has completely ended. It is recommended that everyone clear their positions and leave the market.
The investment market never believes in tears. Everyone invests real money in this market, so it is natural to have different opinions and voices. However, in my humble opinion, although their views seem reasonable, there are many doubts when scrutinized. Such intense persuasion to leave may be hiding some secrets.
Long ago, we once discussed in the dynamics the three stages that triggered and sustained this round of the Bull Market. The first stage was the approval of the spot ETF, the second stage was the presidential election in the beautiful country, and the third stage was the official start of the interest rate cut cycle. According to the facts that have already occurred, this round of the Bull Market has added many favorable factors. These three stages should be adjusted to: the first stage, the BTC spot ETF is smoothly approved, and BTC breaks through the previous high, reaching 73k. The second stage, Trump wins by a high margin, and BTC creates a new high, reaching 104k. The third stage, Trump formally takes office, combined with the Fed's interest rate cut to the neutral rate, BTC will probably hit a high in 2025.
So, at present, we should be in the second phase, and Chuan Jianguo will start his new and old ZF handover work next week. As everyone can see, every speech and personnel appointment after this guy's election will drive the market's sentiment. I believe you also understand that our market is actually very small in scale. What we need most is the drive of sentiment and the establishment of consensus.
Before his election, Chuan Jianguo said that he hoped the United States would treat BTC as a reserve asset. It seems that this old man still has a lot of courage. As an ordinary person, I don't consider things like strategic vision or the unprecedented global changes in the past hundred years. Based on the gradual implementation of these policies and the emergence of new politicians like Lao Ma, once the encryption bill is passed, it is predicted that more and more countries will follow suit, and the value of BTC will become unstoppable. Yesterday, when I was using VPN to access news, Chuan Jianguo clearly stated that during his presidency, he wanted to push the price of BTC to at least 150,000 USD. With the current price, it seems that this goal is getting closer and closer, and it is highly likely that this round of Bull Market will be realized.
According to this logic, let's start by analyzing the technical data. As shown in Figures 1 and 2, the current trend of BTC is quite healthy. After probing 90k at the beginning of this month, the long leverage has been cleared out. The short-term support at 93K-94K has also held steady, and BTC has now returned above 100k, testing the support line at 99K-100K. In the short term, BTC is likely to encounter some pressure around the 100k level. Once it breaks through the previous high here, BTC will usher in a new round of bull run. Currently, the data indicates that we are still below the trend line, with room for upward movement, so the bull market is far from over. Perhaps before the end of the year, we could see 110-120k. When Chuan Jianguo officially takes office next month and brings more policy stimuli, combined with the capital flow during the rate cut cycle, the market is expected to surge to 150k. This seemingly scripted trend prediction is quite optimistic.
The king of altcoins ETH has key short-term support at 3.5K and 3.8K. It seems to have stabilized for now. BlackRock and companies under the banner of Chuangguo have been increasing their holdings of ETH in recent days, so it is certain that ETH will soon hit a new high of 5K-6K.
Looking at the historical patterns, although this bull market did break the previous high ahead of time, it is still more difficult for newcomers to enter the market compared to previous cycles. However, I always believe that the influence of BTC and the crypto market is gradually spreading. Especially in 2021, with the participation of institutions and large companies, now even at the national level, more and more countries are joining the ranks of buying BTC and considering it as a reserve asset.
This is not good news for ordinary people, but it is indeed a huge positive for the development of BTC. Undeniably, BTC is getting further and further away from ordinary people, and it is no longer a springboard for changing one's life and wealth. As a fren who entered the crypto circle later, it is undoubtedly a missed opportunity. However, driven by BTC, the cryptocurrency circle should become more prosperous. Despite many traps and scams, as compliance gradually improves, it can also become an opportunity for many young people to change their destiny. Although playing altcoins carries relatively high risks, compared to other investment targets, if one can maintain sufficient awareness, sufficient knowledge reserves, sufficient trading skills, and sufficient investment principles within the crypto circle, the probability of generating positive results and returns is relatively high.
In this bull run, I have actually seen some young people in real life who have earned more than 5 years of salary, whether it's participating in primary market IPOs or playing meme in the secondary market. The winners are those who are good at learning, brave to be the first in crypto. As for whether they can hold onto this wealth and overcome the weakness of human nature, it remains to be seen.
Recharge a little faith again, everyone take a look at Figure 3, the trend comparison chart of several rounds of the Bull Market. At this stage, it's really not the time to be anxious. In fact, this round of Bull Market still has a long time to go, it will continue until the end of next year's interest rate hike cycle, probably until October or November. Of course, this process will certainly be magnificent, and no one can accurately predict when the top will appear. The trends and timing of each currency's impact on the high point are also different. But I believe that at this moment, various 'zhuang' families have already planned several scripts for next year, and now they are waiting for BTC's leading performance.
I also found an interesting picture. According to the data in Figure 4, our great nation is actually ranked second in terms of global BTC reserves, which is not far from the value of the United States. In addition, Bhutan and Ukraine also hold so much BTC. These are all information that we cannot know within the country. It's really surprising. It seems that everyone is silently waving a big flag. I don't understand. Even if our great nation ranks first, what does it have to do with us ordinary people who are rich in the country and poor in the people?
Finally, let me remind you again that the Bull Market is very volatile. If you don't have a solid foundation, you should stay away from futures contracts. Even if you play with contracts, don't have too much short-selling mindset at high prices. Only by following the trend can you achieve good results. If you are fully invested at the moment, have confidence in yourself, be patient, and holding coins is enough. Don't be indecisive, chasing after every opportunity. It's impossible for one person to make all the money. Stay calm and wait for the right time. If you haven't opened a position yet, the future layout points, besides the popular meme coins, should mostly be concept coins in the AI and RWA tracks. These two tracks are currently the biggest narratives and are likely to run through the entire Bull Market. Pay more attention to coins with a capital nature in the beautiful country. Under the premise of the current play-acting by the Americans, the returns should not be too bad.