Talking about the Bitcoin "halving" in 2024

The "halving" is what makes Bitcoin truly unique in the world of financial assets. No other commodity has the same fully calculable production schedule that allows Volkswagen to prepare in advance for its halving.

The 2020 "halving" left an indelible mark on the Bitcoin mining industry, and this time in 2024 will undoubtedly bring significant changes. In order to avoid the possible impact as much as possible, we made a report by analyzing the impact of the halving on the core metrics of Bitcoin mining (including hashrate, difficulty, and hashrate price), as well as the aspects of the Bitcoin mining business (mining rig price, custody rate, and other considerations).

Based on the analysis, the following key points are provided here:

1. The fourth Bitcoin halving will take place on April 19, 2024 at approximately 13:30 UTC.

2. If the current coin price continues to maintain or moderately increases, it is expected that about 3%-7% of the Bitcoin hashrate may go offline after the halving, and miners will see these approximate percentage reductions in subsequent difficulty adjustments.

3. If the price of the coin falls from the current level to about $48,000, then it is expected that about 16% of the bitcoin hashrate will go offline, and the hashrate will be between 639 EH/s and 674 EH/s by the end of the year.

As noted in the report, it is believed that the halving in 2024 will be very different from the past. The current Bitcoin bull market, coupled with the surge in transaction fees due to inscription and ordinal activity, provides an opportunity for many miners to remain motivated even after the block reward drops to 3.125 BTC. If the price of Bitcoin remains or rises, a small portion of the hashrate may go offline. If the current trend continues, expect to see a slow increase in hashrate over the next year, as the compressed profit margins – resulting from a slow but steady increase in difficulty – will determine how much hash power will remain online and profitable.

Finally, while the halving may not have as much impact on miners as previously thought, the profit margins will remain very limited after the event. Therefore, miners should maximize their mining efficiency, whether through firmware updates or mining equipment updates, or hedging against mining yields, electricity price risk, and Bitcoin volatility.