The traditional four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin is facing unprecedented challenges. For a long time, the Crypto Assets market has followed this cyclical pattern, but with changes in the market environment, whether this rule will be broken has become a hot topic of discussion in the industry.

Recently, Bitcoin has reached new highs before 2020, breaking previous patterns. Subsequently, the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF further changed the market landscape. Some analysts believe that this marks the end of the typical cycle where Bitcoin peaks in the second year after halving and then drops 70-80% the following year.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that the stability of holders directly affects the stability of prices. The listing of the ETF in January 2024 attracted a large influx of new funds into the market, causing Bitcoin prices to reach new highs repeatedly. Currently, institutional investors such as Harvard University and Goldman Sachs are participating in Bitcoin investments through ETFs, and the addition of these long-term holders may reduce market volatility.

However, not all experts are optimistic. The latest data from CoinGlass shows that this year's market performance is similar to previous cycles, especially in terms of price trends. The report also points out that the profit levels achieved by long-term holders are close to those during past boom phases, reinforcing the impression that the market may be in the later stages of the cycle.

Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is approximately $115,492, with a year-to-date increase of 22%. Despite its strong recent performance, there is still uncertainty in the market. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached a peak of $69,044, and then fell below $16,000 in November 2022. This extreme volatility serves as a reminder for investors to remain vigilant.

With the entry of institutional investors and changes in the market environment, the investment landscape of Bitcoin is undergoing profound changes. While historical patterns provide reference, future market trends may break conventions and present new characteristics. Investors need to closely monitor market movements, weigh risks and opportunities, and make informed investment decisions.