From the recent speeches of the Fed chairman, the likelihood of a rate cut in September has greatly increased. However, we still need to be wary of any surprises that may arise from the August non-farm payroll data and CPI data. In the medium to long term, with the new Fed chairman confirmed, next year is likely to be a year of monetary easing.

Against the backdrop of abundant macro liquidity, the core trend of the cryptocurrency market may return to fundamentals. Currently, the anticipated altcoin season has yet to arrive, mainly due to the continued lack of on-chain activity, which lacks solid fundamental support, and the market is primarily driven by sentiment.

In the future, the impact of macro factors on the cryptocurrency market may gradually weaken. Market trends will increasingly rely on whether blockchain technology can bring about new innovations and narratives. Without substantial technological breakthroughs, it may only drive the rise of individual quality coins, making it difficult to form a structural bull market.

It is worth noting that the traditional cryptocurrency market cycle theory is gradually losing its effectiveness. The theories that people often discussed in the past, such as 'three years of bear market followed by one year of bull market' or 'entering a bear market in the second year after the halving', are no longer applicable in the current complex market environment. There are now more variables affecting the market than ever before, including cryptocurrency stocks, ETFs, and policies and regulations, all of which have a significant impact on the market.

Looking ahead, we hope that with the continuous improvement of blockchain infrastructure, the entire industry can truly enter a deep investment research cycle. This will contribute to the healthy development of the market and provide more value investment opportunities for investors.