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Recently, the international credit rating agency Fitch reaffirmed its credit rating for the United States, maintaining it at "AA+" with a stable outlook. This rating reflects several advantages of the U.S. economy, including its large economic scale, high per capita income level, vibrant business environment, and the unique financing advantages brought by the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency.
However, Fitch also pointed out some concerning factors that limit the possibility of the U.S. achieving a higher rating. The main issues include the persistent high fiscal deficit, heavy interest burdens, and the continuously rising level of government debt. It is worth noting that the U.S. government has yet to take effective measures to address these long-standing fiscal issues, particularly the spending growth pressures related to an aging population.
According to Fitch's forecast, the financial condition of the U.S. government is expected to show volatility in the coming years. It is anticipated that by 2025, driven by a significant increase in revenue, the government deficit as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease from 7.7% in 2024 to 6.9%. However, this improvement may be short-lived, as projections indicate that this percentage will rise again to 7.8% in 2026 and further increase to 7.9% in 2027.
This assessment highlights the complex economic situation faced by the United States. Although the U.S. still maintains a strong economic foundation and global influence, its long-term fiscal health is facing severe challenges. The government needs to find a balance between sustaining economic growth and controlling debt, which will be a key focus of U.S. economic policy in the coming years.