Recently, some people have started saying that the U.S. is entering an economic recession, so I would like to share some basic knowledge with everyone.

When it comes to the recession of the American economy, there are often misunderstandings. First of all, the official determination of a recession in the U.S. is not something that anyone can decide, nor can it be casually announced by the President or Congress. This authority belongs to an organization called NBER @nberpubs, which stands for the National Bureau of Economic Research. It is a private non-profit organization that independently assesses economic conditions, ensuring the professionalism and authority of its judgments.

@nberpubs Determining a recession is not based on feelings; it has its own strict criteria: there must be a noticeable decline in economic indicators for several consecutive months. This method ensures a rigorous determination, but it also has a lagging nature. In other words, when the NBER officially announces a recession, the economy may have already been sluggish for a period of time. Therefore, investors need to look at the data and make their own judgments rather than just waiting for official statements.

Looking back at history, since 1855, the United States has experienced 35 recessions. Past recessions not only occurred more frequently but also lasted longer. An interesting phenomenon can be observed here: the development of modern economics and policy measures have actually played a significant role in alleviating recessions. Fiscal stimulus and monetary easing have clearly enhanced the resilience of the economy, and recessions are no longer as deep or as prolonged as they used to be.

In light of the current situation, the Trump administration has implemented significant fiscal stimulus, and the Federal Reserve is still easing and cutting interest rates. Although recent employment data and economic performance appear less than ideal, it does not directly lead to the conclusion that "the U.S. is bound to decline." Market fluctuations and short-term data volatility are normal; investors need to analyze rationally and should not be swayed by short-term news.