Recently, there is a general consensus in the financial market and academic community: The Federal Reserve is likely to implement a rate cut in September. This expectation is mainly based on the following key factors:

First, the U.S. job market has shown signs of weakness in recent months. The non-farm payroll data has performed poorly, and the unemployment rate has risen, all of which provide the Federal Reserve with reasons to lower interest rates.

Secondly, although inflation data has seen a slight rebound, core indicators show that inflationary pressures are easing. This provides the Federal Reserve with greater policy maneuvering space.

In terms of market expectations, the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows a 94.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Meanwhile, most economists predict that September will be the first rate cut of the year, and there may be a second rate cut later in the year.

It is worth noting that if the unemployment rate continues to rise, some institutions such as Goldman Sachs even expect the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points. However, the mainstream expectation still focuses on a 25 basis points cut.

Although there are differences within the Federal Reserve, recent meeting minutes show that core officials lean towards a rate cut within the year. The continued cooling of the labor market seems to have a more significant impact on the Federal Reserve's decision-making, despite the rebound in inflation data in July.

In terms of external pressure, the Treasury Secretary and some politicians are calling for a larger cut in interest rates, but the Federal Reserve currently tends to favor a gradual easing policy.

Although some Federal Reserve board members remain cautious, the view supporting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has become mainstream. Overall, a rate cut in September has almost become a consensus in the market, but the specific extent and subsequent policy direction still need close attention.

In such an economic environment, investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy signals and their potential impact on various assets. At the same time, attention should also be paid to the uncertainties that may arise from the global economic situation and geopolitical factors.