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📍China's real estate continues to decline, the government's support packages only serve as "band-aids".
🔻 The sales of the 100 largest real estate companies in China decreased by -24% Y/Y in July (the lowest in 10 months). This figure follows a -23% decline from the previous month. Month-over-month, it dropped by -38% M/M (the lowest since the beginning of the year).
🔻 Both new and old home prices fell together in June, exceeding -0.5% M/M.
🔻 The PBoC continues to inject 544.8B CNY through a 7-day RRP with an interest rate of 1.4%. It is still just a temporary adjustment, not addressing the issue.
🔻 Most large real estate enterprises are still in a state of insolvency, with over 70% of USD bonds in the industry defaulted. Evergrande is about to be delisted, Country Garden is losing liquidity, and anyone who tried to bottom-fish the Chinese market a year ago has likely been exposed to the harsh realities of the market.
🔻However, I believe that the economic downturn in China will not cause a chain crisis. China's room for maneuver is very large. Beijing has just not timed the phase for QE to push the economy back. This phase is only about injecting liquidity to let the market cool down naturally after many decades of overheating.