#BTC# Update

In my weekly plan, I suggested that a higher low at 112.5k was possible. Even though most of the times the weekend liquidity is swept during active trading hours during the weekdays, the market maker recently started front-running the traders by printing higher lows instead of sweeping the lower liquidity. This is mainly because the idea of "sweeping the weekend lows" has become common knowledge, and when everyone bets on the same idea, the probability of it decreases.

Price-wise, BTC is still very close to the lows, and also below the resistance levels. This is why a lower sweep is possible.

Time-wise, we are on Wednesday, and most weekend low sweeps happen in the first half of the week, so in my opinion, the possibility of a lower low is decreasing as time passes.

TA-wise, BTC held the VWAP anchored to the last local low (98k) as support. This level at ~113.3-113.4k is also the weekend EQ and also intersects with the descending trendline connecting the dips.

The first two resistance levels are the last dips in July, 114,710 and 115,750. 115,750 is also significant because of the VWAP +1stdev (worked as support and resistance before), and is just below the Monday Range extension.

However, I think the most important resistance to confirm the local low is at 116.7k, which is the VWAP anchored to the last local low before the parabolic increase - also the -0.618 level of the Monday Range. Just above that is the descending trendline cureently at 117.3k decreasing by ~$250 each day.

On the weekly liquidation heatmap, the most liquidity is at 111.6k, however we can also see the increase in liquidity between the last high at 115.8k and 117k.

As we look at higher timeframes, all the recent zones lose their significance because of the huge liquidity at 120k.

The funding rate, open interest, retail L/S ratios and whale vs retail delta shows that the market has literally been doing nothing recently.

SUMMARY

🔵We are still in the no trade zone. There is still a possibility of a correction to 111.5k, but contrary to everyone I think the probability is low.
🔵Unless we break above 117k, BTC may continue on ranging, and although the probability is low, the 111.5k correction would still be in the books.