Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown a volatile consolidation trend, attracting the attention and discussion of longer investors. From a technical perspective, there is still potential for an upward movement in Bitcoin's trend, but at the same time, some warning signals have also emerged.

Currently, the MACD indicator on the daily chart of Bitcoin has not shown any significant bearish divergence, which suggests that there may still be potential for creating new highs in the short term. However, market participants need to remain cautious, as the current market conditions are challenging, and the holding experience may not be favorable. Excessive participation may affect investors' judgment abilities during the transition between longer and shorter positions.

From a more macro perspective, if we assume that Bitcoin forms the absolute peak of this bull market around the level of 130,000 USD, then during Bitcoin's ascent to this level, most altcoins may face severe challenges.

Objective analysis shows that Bitcoin is currently repairing the upward trend in the range of $107,500 to $123,218, with no obvious breakouts or signs of level expansion. Technical indicators across various time frames show mixed performance: the MACD at the weekly and 3-day levels remains healthy, and the RSI has not entered the overbought zone; the daily MACD shows divergence, the RSI is slightly overbought, but is undergoing a strong repair; indicators at the 12-hour level are also in the process of repair.

Overall, the current consolidation of Bitcoin is within a healthy range, and the bullish trend has not yet shown significant deterioration. From an operational perspective, large position investors may consider taking profits in batches and then observing, or flexibly building positions to go long at the bottom of the consolidation range (setting a stop-loss at the lower edge).

However, there is a certain gap between subjective feelings and objective analysis. Subjectively, investors may reduce their tolerance for pullbacks due to a fear of heights and discomfort with volatile market conditions. Objectively, although the overall trend has not yet ended, the market may be going through a topping process.

In this case, investors who continue to hold positions need to be psychologically prepared to endure possible drawdowns or the whipsaw effect during periods of volatility. Market participants should closely follow the changes in various technical indicators while considering the macroeconomic environment and industry dynamics to make prudent investment decisions.