#ETH冲击4800# : Can Ethereum break through its historical high? My holding strategy and bull run outlook 1. The possibility of ETH breaking $4,800 Currently, the price of ETH has stabilized at $3,600 (24-hour increase of 7.7%, weekly increase of 23%), just about 26% away from its historical high of $4,855. From a technical perspective, the key resistance level has been broken, with ETH recently making a strong breakout above the $3,400 resistance level and forming a "head and shoulders bottom" structure, with a mid-term target of $4,400. If it breaks through $3,800, the $4,100 to $4,800 channel will open. Market sentiment supports this; the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shows that 76% of investors bet on ETH breaking $3,300 in July, with some even looking towards $4,000.

Institutional target price DigitalCoinPrice predicts that by the end of 2025, ETH may reach $6,507, while conservative institutions like Changelly believe the range is between $2,400 and $3,600. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and ETF physical redemptions are approved (key milestone in September), combined with the rotation of funds during the "altcoin season", hitting $4,800 is feasible. 2. I am optimistic about ETH for three core reasons ( 1. Large-scale institutional capital inflow into ETFs has set record highs, with U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs seeing an inflow of $727 million in a single day (historical peak), net inflows for 10 consecutive weeks, totaling $5.76 billion, accounting for 3.87% of ETH's market value. A trend of accumulation among listed companies, such as Nasdaq companies like SharpLink Gaming (holding 188,000 ETH, valued at $560 million) and BitMine (160,000 ETH) replicating MicroStrategy's strategy, driving the "MNAV flywheel effect" (market value/net asset multiple reaches 2.35-4 times). ) 2. Technical aspects and on-chain health, with reduced selling pressure from staking lock-ups, 360,000 ETH staked (29% of total supply), reaching a historical high and significantly reducing circulation. On-chain activity is vibrant, with daily trading volume exceeding $12 billion (1.8 times the 30-day average), and daily active wallets reaching 2.5 million. ( 3. Regulatory and ecological upgrades. Policy inflection point, the U.S. "GENIUS Act" passed procedural voting, clarifying the regulatory framework for stablecoins, solidifying Ethereum's position as a settlement layer (handling 35% of global stablecoin transactions). Expectations for Pectra upgrades, with the Q4 2024 upgrade optimizing the staking economic model and enhancing network efficiency. 3. Risk warning: short-term volatility and potential negative news.
Leverage risk for ETH open contracts reached $22.6 billion (historical peak). If the price drops below $3,000, it may trigger $1.45 billion in long liquidations, leading to a flash crash.
Regulatory delays: SEC postpones approval of Bitwise Ethereum ETF's physical redemption mechanism, likely to remain on the sidelines before September.
The foundation's selling pressure, with the Ethereum Foundation having sold a total of 52.82 million USD worth of ETH in the past three months, may suppress the price increase in the short term.