Today's strategy 7/13/7:34

### 1. Core Data Interpretation (Key Indicator Integration)
1. **Price Trend**:
- Current price: $2,934~2,936 (24h decline 0.70%-0.74%)
- Moving Average System: MA5($2932.95) > MA10($2931.02) < MA30($2952.19) → **Bearish Arrangement**
- MACD: DIF(-5.26) < DEA(-3.74), histogram green bars extend → **downward momentum strengthens**

2. **Market Sentiment**:
- Basis depth discount: 4H basis -3.25% → **Strong bearish expectation**
- Large holder positions: Short positions account for 52.11% vs Long positions 47.88% (Long-Short ratio 0.91) → **Institutions are bearish**
- Funding Rate: -0.028% (4H) → **Bearish Market Dominance**

3. **Key Support/Resistance**:
- Support: $2913 (15m basis low), $2772 (30m basis)
- Resistance: $2952 (MA30 moving average), $3040 (sell order pressure zone)
- Liquidation Zone: $2780-$2936 (Buy Order Accumulation Zone)

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### 2. Today's Trend Forecast
1. **Asian Market Period (Current - 16:00)**:
- Continuing to oscillate downward, testing the $2913 support.
- Observe the trading volume: If the active selling volume > 510,000 (level in screenshot 1), it may dip to $2772.
2. **EU/US Market Hours (16:00-24:00)**:
- If it does not drop below $2913, it may bounce back to the $2952 resistance.
- A breakthrough of MA30 requires an increase in open interest (Screenshot 4) and a MACD golden cross.

> **Intraday Core Contradiction**: The basis contango indicates a bearish sentiment, but there is liquidation buy support below $2780.

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### 3. Best Entry Strategy (12,000 Yuan principal)
#### Plan A: **Long Positioning** (Bet on a Rebound)
- **Entry Point**: $2915-2920 (Previous low support + liquidation buy zone)
- **Stop Loss**: Below $2900 (if it breaks the previous low, the trend turns bearish)
- **Target**: $2952 (MA30 resistance) → Profit space 1.2%
- **Position**: ≤40% of principal (approximately $4,800)

#### Plan B: **Short Trend Following** (Main Trend Following)
- **Entry point**: Current price of $2935 or a rebound to $2945
- **Stop Loss**: $2960 (Above MA30)
- **Target**: $2772 (basis support level) → Profit margin 5.5%
- **Position**: ≤30% of principal (high risk, strict stop-loss required)

#### Plan C: **Breakthrough Trading**
- If it breaks out with volume above $2955 → Long, target $3040
- If the volume breaks below $2900 → Short, target $2772
- Position ≤ 20%

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### 4. Key Points of Risk Control
1. **Time Window**:
- Focus on 16:00/20:00 (4H cycle switch point)
- Funding rate can fluctuate before settlement (data from screenshot 3)
2. **Indicator Combination**:
- Long positions require waiting: MACD green bars shorten + active buying volume > 340,000 (Screenshot 1)
- Short confirmation signal: large holders' short position ratio > 53% (screenshot 2)
3. **Principal Management**:
- Single trade stop loss ≤ 2% of principal (￥240)
- Leverage recommendation ≤5x (high volatility characteristics of perpetual contracts)

> **Ultimate Reminder**: The current basis depth discount suggests a **medium-term bearish** outlook. Day trading is advised to be quick in and out, with a key focus on the impact of tonight's 20:00 US CPI data on the cryptocurrency market. If the data is unfavorable, it may accelerate the downward probe towards the $2772 support area.