Jin10整理：The Federal Reserve (FED)“等等党”和“行动派”各行其是，会议纪要将揭晓方向

Before the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, reviewing the public statements made by Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates and economic outlook since the June meeting, it can be seen that a majority of officials tend to be cautious and wait, "as early as July, at the latest September?" The meeting minutes still need to clarify the direction further. Etc. Party: 1. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: It is impossible to assert whether a rate cut in July would be too early. There is no need to rush to change interest rates. If inflationary pressures remain controlled, we will cut rates sooner rather than later, but I am reluctant to point to a specific meeting. 2. Federal Reserve Williams: The current interest rate stance of the Federal Reserve gives us time to closely analyze the newly received data, assess the changing outlook, and evaluate the risk balance in achieving our dual mandate goals. 3. Federal Reserve Governor Barr: Current data shows no urgent reason to cut rates. The inflation risk brought by tariffs cannot be ignored. Monetary policy is in a good position, ready to wait and observe changes in the economic situation. 4. Federal Reserve Schmidt: Before making any rate decisions, the Federal Reserve has time to study the impact of tariffs on inflation. A cautious approach is appropriate. 5. Federal Reserve Harker (non-2025 voter): More observation is needed before cutting rates. The improvement in inflation is very slow. I am close to the upper end of the Federal Reserve's dot plot. 6. Federal Reserve Daly (non-2025 voter): Tariffs may not lead to a significant or sustained spike in inflation, and I am open to a rate cut in the "fall." I have always believed we could start adjusting rates in the fall. 7. Federal Reserve Barkin (non-2025 voter): Due to many uncertainties still present, the Federal Reserve should wait for more clarity before adjusting rates. Actionists: 1. Federal Reserve Governor Waller: A rate cut may be possible as early as the July meeting. Tariffs will not significantly push up inflation. 2. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: If inflationary pressures are controlled, I would support lowering the policy interest rate as soon as possible at the next meeting. 3. Federal Reserve Collins: A rate cut in July may be too early; the baseline outlook is to restore rate cuts later this year. This could mean one rate cut or more, but I think we really need data to tell us. I do not see urgency. 4. Federal Reserve Goolsbee: If inflation clearly trends toward the 2% target set by decision-makers, and the uncertainty of the economic outlook decreases, the Federal Reserve may resume rate cuts. 5. Federal Reserve Kashkari (non-2025 voter): I still expect two rate cuts in 2025, with the first cut possibly occurring in September. If the labor market deteriorates significantly, even if inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may cut rates. Others: 1. "Federal Reserve Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: Powell dodged a sharp question about a rate cut in July, refusing to rule out any possibilities four weeks before the policy meeting and indicating almost no preparation for a rate cut this month. 2. U.S. President Trump: If Powell misleads Congress, he should "resign immediately" and should cut rates immediately. 3. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: I believe the Federal Reserve may take action earlier than the fall, but will definitely cut rates by September at the latest.