AI Weekly Hotspot Report (06.20 - 06.27)

You are reading the weekly industry hotspot report generated for you by Gate AI Lab. Here’s a look at the most noteworthy market trends and important events from last week, along with recommended investment analysis and financial strategies.

Word count: 7677 words ｜ Reading time 10.4 minutes.

Directory:

1. Market Trends
2. Analysis of funds and price fluctuations
3. Hot Topics
4. Main Events
5. Global Policies
6. Investment Analysis

1. Market Trends

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total market value of digital currencies reached $357.9 billion, a decrease of 7.9% compared to the previous period. The trading volume on exchanges decreased to $137.819 billion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 4% to $98,839.87. Overall, the cryptocurrency market shows a downward trend.

According to the Gate Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is greedy, with a Fear and Greed Index of 65. This is a decrease compared to yesterday, but overall it remains in the greedy range, reflecting a relatively optimistic market sentiment.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 09am UTC+8, Jun 27

1.2. Macroeconomic Impact

Recent data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing down. The U.S. May CPI rose by 4.0% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, but still at a high level. The Eurozone's May CPI annual rate is 6.1%, higher than the expected 5.9%. Against the backdrop of persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation expectations. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the market expects an 80.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by another 25 basis points at the July meeting.

The Producer Price Index ( PPI ) and the Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) are also worth paying attention to. In May, the US PPI rose by 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 1.5%, indicating a relief in inflationary pressures on the production side. However, the manufacturing PMI is at 46.9, remaining in the contraction zone for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting weak manufacturing sentiment. The services PMI is at 54.9, slightly higher than last month, but still below expectations.

Overall, the macro environment of high inflation and economic slowdown, coupled with the continuous tightening of monetary policy, puts pressure on risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market is no exception. Investors need to closely monitor changes in the macro situation and cautiously seize investment opportunities.

1.3 Financial Calendar

Analysis and Summary:

1. This week, the focus is on the U.S. employment data for June, including ADP employment numbers, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rate indicators. This data will reflect the state of the U.S. labor market and will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

2. The manufacturing PMI data is also worth paying attention to, as it reflects the expansion or contraction of manufacturing activity. The final values for the US June ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be announced.

3. In addition, the EIA crude oil inventory data will reveal the state of energy supply and play an important guiding role in the trend of oil prices.

Overall, the economic data released this week focused mainly on employment, manufacturing, and the energy sector, and investors need to closely monitor these data for insights into the economic outlook.

2. Capital Market and Price Volatility Analysis

2.1. Price Volatility Analysis

BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the BTC weekly volatility is 1.23%.

Price Fluctuations and Reasons This week, the BTC price fluctuated between $106,000 and $108,000. The price increase was mainly driven by favorable factors such as the easing of geopolitical tensions and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. However, persistent inflationary pressures and uncertainties regarding regulatory policies also constrained the increase.

Impact of Trading Volume Changes The trading volume increased during the price rise phase, indicating strengthened buying power. However, the overall trading volume has not fluctuated much, suggesting that market participants remain cautious. The changes in trading volume have not yet triggered a significant shift in market activity and price direction.

Market Activity and Price Direction Despite the price increase, the market activity has not changed significantly. Investors still have differing opinions on the future market, requiring further confirmation of positive news to guide the price direction. In the short term, BTC is expected to fluctuate around the range of $107,000.

2.2. Capital market analysis

According to the latest capital flow data, Bitcoin ( BTC ) has shown a net outflow state over the past week. Specifically, on June 27, there was a net outflow of $36,037,804 in BTC funds, while on June 26, there was a net inflow of $47,481,505.53. This fluctuation in capital flow reflects investors' divergence on the future trend of BTC.

The capital flow of Ethereum ( ETH ) is relatively stable. Data shows that over the past week, the overall ETH capital has maintained a net inflow status, although the magnitude has fluctuated. This indicates that investors remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of ETH.

Institutional Investor Behavior analysis shows that institutional investors have adopted a cautious investment strategy towards BTC and ETH over the past week. They tend to buy when prices drop and take profits when prices rise.

Retail investor behavior tends to be more aggressive. They often chase prices higher during uptrends and passively sell during downtrends. This investment behavior may exacerbate market volatility.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is quite active, and there are divergent investor sentiments. The future price direction still has significant uncertainty, and investors need to carefully manage risks.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

The flow of smart money often indicates market trends. By analyzing changes in the volume of large orders, we can gain insights into the direction of institutional funds.

Bitcoin ( BTC ): In recent weeks, the trading volume of large BTC orders has increased, indicating that institutional investors are gradually building their positions. This may suggest that bullish momentum is accumulating, preparing for future price increases.

Ethereum ( ETH ): Similar to BTC, the large transaction volume of ETH has also increased. This indicates that institutional investors' demand for ETH is rising, and there may be more buying support in the future.

Ripple ( XRP ): The large transaction volume of XRP has decreased, suggesting that institutional investors may be gradually exiting their positions. This could bring some selling pressure to XRP's future price movements.

Overall, the inflow of smart money into BTC and ETH is strong, indicating that there may be more upward momentum in the future. In contrast, the situation for XRP is the opposite, and caution is needed for potential selling pressure.

3. Hot Topics

Is the era of Bitcoin million-dollar coming? Experts say BTC may become the best investment choice for the next altcoin season.

Bitcoin leads a new bull market, with the altcoin season index soaring to 26.

Driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, after several ups and downs, a new crypto bull market has begun, with Bitcoin soaring from $99,800 to $108,000 in just three days. Meanwhile, the altcoin market is on the verge of a breakout – this is evident in the significant rise of the altcoin season index, which has increased from 20 to 26 since the beginning of this week.

Renowned market commentator Nick Ruck predicts that mainstream cryptocurrencies will outperform others in the coming months, especially under stable macro conditions and when specific catalysts for crypto come into full effect. As whales rush to accumulate crypto assets in anticipation of the upcoming altcoin season, their buying patterns reveal the best gems that could still yield 10 to 100 times profits by 2025.

Is the million-dollar era of Bitcoin coming? BTC Bull Token becomes the best investment choice for the next altcoin season.

With Bitcoin leading the next bull market, Bitcoin Hyper has emerged as a strong competitor for explosive growth. As the first major Layer-2 solution for Bitcoin, Bitcoin Hyper stands out by addressing the infrastructure issues that limit Bitcoin's usability in daily transactions.

Slow transactions and high fees have long plagued Bitcoin, and its rigid network architecture has made it difficult for developers to build decentralized applications on it. To address these limitations, Bitcoin surpasses the virtual machine integration with Solana, achieving seamless, fast, and cost-effective transactions. Similarly, the project also makes the Bitcoin network more flexible to accommodate decentralized applications in various fields, including NFTs, gaming, and the metaverse.

HYPER serves as the backbone of the ecosystem - it supports trading, enables staking, and gives users a voice in the network's development. Having raised over $1.6 million in the presale, HYPER is becoming one of the best cryptocurrency choices for the next altcoin season.

The Bitcoin Bull Token (BTC Bull) has all the conditions to become one of the best altcoins in the market's seasonal cryptocurrency. A simple social meme coin, BTC Bull's core advantage is that it does not pretend to have any actual utility, but instead focuses on creating a vibrant community to help Bitcoin reach its next golden milestone – $1 million.

Every mechanism surrounding the project, including its tokenomics and roadmap, has been closely linked to the future price trends of Bitcoin, making it more than just another traditional Bitcoin-themed meme coin. Use cases emphasized in the roadmap include initiating token burns when Bitcoin reaches $125k, $175k, and $225k, as well as conducting BTC airdrops when Bitcoin reaches $150k, $200k, and $250k.

Meanwhile, before Bitcoin rose to these levels, smart money investors had accumulated passive earnings through the BTC Bull staking tool, providing additional incentives for early participants. The narrative depicted by the project's mascot—a bull—fits very well. It enhances Bitcoin's status as the strongest brand in the cryptocurrency market.

Creating a sensation in the investment community, after raising over $7 million in pre-sales, well-known publications such as Finbold and Crypto Daily have listed it as one of the best low market cap investment gems. The ICO for BTC Bull is expected to end in a few days, which means that waiting investors have limited time to participate in the early investment.

Bottom line

As geopolitical tensions begin to ease, liquidity is flowing back into financial markets, including stocks and digital currencies. Bitcoin has resumed its northbound journey, reclaiming the $108K level, thereby boosting market sentiment. Altcoins are also benefiting from this wave of行情, with some making it onto the gainers' list in recent intraday trading.

Given the expected influx of funds into these blue-chip coins, there is a rush to find the best altcoin purchases now. Assets like XRP and WIF have already entered the expert watchlist, alongside several presale projects that demonstrate strong growth potential. This article outlines these expert selections and explores their current market trends.

4. Major Events

The following are the Top 15 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days:

Federal Reserve officials speak intensively On June 27, 2025, several Federal Reserve officials stated that more months of observation are needed to confirm that the price increases triggered by tariffs will not sustainably drive up inflation, and they are not yet prepared to support interest rate cuts at the next meeting. This indicates that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates for the time being, which will have some impact on the trends in the cryptocurrency market.

Pi Coin Breaks Down from Falling Wedge On June 27, 2025, Pi Coin confirmed a bullish breakout, with a potential 30% upward rally. Trading volume surged by 43%, indicating strong momentum. The speculation and market sentiment surrounding Pi Network support the recovery of Pi Coin.

LP has all gone to Hong Kong On June 27, 2025, DBS Bank is making a significant expansion in Hong Kong by applying for a cryptocurrency service license, intending to transform Hong Kong into an "offshore RMB asset hub". This reflects the changes in regulatory policies and opportunities in the cryptocurrency field in Hong Kong.

Cryptocurrency Gambler Portrait The article analyzes the gambler's psychology and behavior patterns in crypto contract trading, revealing the risks and addictiveness of high-leverage trading. This helps investors understand the speculative nature of the crypto market.

Moments Focus On June 27, 2025, the Moments platform focused on the latest developments and roadmaps of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, providing investors with important market information.

Resupply Attacked On June 26, 2025, the stablecoin protocol Resupply suffered a suspicious trading attack, resulting in a loss of approximately $9.5 million. This has raised concerns about the security of DeFi.

Eclipse Labs prohibits employees from claiming airdrops On June 26, 2025, Eclipse Labs announced that employees have signed documents prohibiting the claim of any ES airdrops. This reflects the project's prudent attitude towards token distribution.

Coinbase Launches New Cryptocurrency On June 25, 2025, Coinbase has launched two new cryptocurrencies: Sonic(S) and Newton(NEWT). This expands Coinbase's product line.

Guotai Junan International Approved On June 25, 2025, Hong Kong's Guotai Junan International was officially approved to engage in virtual asset trading, resulting in a surge in stock prices. This marks the entry of traditional financial institutions into the cryptocurrency sector.

Data: The crypto sector has slightly retraced On June 26, 2025, according to SoSoValue data, various sectors of the cryptocurrency market experienced a slight pullback, with only BTC and CeFi sectors remaining relatively strong. This reflects a change in market sentiment.

Data: Crypto Derivatives Risk Index On June 25, 2025, the CoinGlass crypto derivatives risk index is 59, remaining within the "neutral volatility" range. This provides a reference for the risk level of the derivatives market.

Analyst: Bitcoin May Break Historical High On June 26, 2025, CoinDesk analysts stated that the Bitcoin price chart shows a "bullish flag pattern," suggesting a potential breakout to a new all-time high. This provides an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's future movements.

Traders believe that after a weak rebound, it will continue to test the bottom On June 26, 2025, analysts from Greeks.live indicated that some traders believe there will be a weak rebound followed by further declines. This reflects a divergence in market expectations for future trends.

Today's top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap rise and fall On June 26, 2025, Mars announced the price fluctuations of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization for that day, with E showing the highest increase. This provides investors with a reference for market trends.

Overnight Market Overview in One Minute On June 27, 2025, it summarized the main market changes in the overnight cryptocurrency market, including the rise and fall of currencies, major events, etc. This helps investors quickly understand market dynamics.

5. Global Policies

The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies, or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry based on news from June 20 to 27, 2025, along with an analysis and summary of their impact on the industry and the market.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency ( FHFA ) classifies cryptocurrency as an eligible asset for mortgage applications

Description:

• The Federal Housing Finance Agency ( FHFA ) issued a directive requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare to classify cryptocurrencies as reserve assets in the risk assessment of single-family residential mortgages.
• Borrowers do not need to convert cryptocurrencies into US dollars, and cryptocurrencies will be considered part of the assessment of the borrower's assets.
• This initiative aims to enable businesses to assess all asset information available for reserves, facilitating reputable borrowers to achieve sustainable homeownership.

Impact Analysis:

• Favorable for cryptocurrency lending institutions, opening substantial federal loan programs for more borrowers.
• Promote the integration of crypto assets with traditional financial systems and accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies in daily life.
• Helps to improve the current situation of the U.S. real estate market, increases market demand, and alleviates the sluggish real estate market.

Hong Kong formulates plans to regulate cryptocurrencies, encouraging tokenization

Description:

• The Hong Kong government has released its second major policy statement on digital assets, reiterating its commitment to making Hong Kong a global industry hub.
• The framework will be supervised by the Securities and Futures Commission and is applicable to custodians, digital asset service providers, exchanges, and stablecoins.
• The government will review the legal framework for the tokenization of real-world assets and financial instruments, incentivizing the tokenization of physical assets.

Impact Analysis:

• Providing regulatory guidelines for cryptocurrency companies to operate in Hong Kong is conducive to the development of Hong Kong as a global crypto hub.
• Encouraging tokenization helps improve asset liquidity and accessibility, promoting financial innovation.
• Reflect the Hong Kong government's policy orientation to support the development of the cryptocurrency industry.

U.S. Senator: The Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill will be completed by September 30

Description:

• Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott stated that legislation to establish rules for the U.S. crypto market will be completed by September 30.
• Scott believes that completing the legislation within this timeline is a realistic expectation.
• The main legislators in the House are taking a cautious approach to announcing their strategies on cryptocurrency market structure and stablecoin legislation.

Impact Analysis:

• Establishing a clear timeline for the regulation of the cryptocurrency market in the United States is beneficial for the long-term development of the industry.
• There are differences between the two chambers on specific legislative details, which may delay the legislative process.
• Timely implementation of regulatory laws helps to standardize market order and protect investors' rights.

Summary

Policies and Regulations:

• Major economies such as the United States and Hong Kong are formulating cryptocurrency regulatory policies to integrate crypto assets into the traditional financial system.
• Regulatory measures are aimed at standardizing market order while encouraging financial innovation and promoting the integration of cryptocurrencies with the real economy.
• Timely introduction of clear regulatory regulations is beneficial for the long-term healthy development of the cryptocurrency industry.

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendation

Market trends show that Bitcoin has risen again after easing geopolitical tensions, driving activity in the altcoin market. In addition, the Hong Kong government has announced that it will introduce a cryptocurrency regulatory framework, injecting new momentum into the industry.

Please note that these suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investing involves risks; please make decisions cautiously.

6.2 Investment Strategy

Part 1: This Week's Hot Token Technical Analysis

Dogecoin ( DOGE ) and Shiba Inu ( SHIB ), as two well-known meme coins, have attracted market attention this week. Dogecoin has dropped 26% in the past month and nearly 47% in the last six months, showing persistent downward pressure. Shiba Inu has also fallen 19% in the past month, with a 46% decline over six months, indicating weak short-term performance. The price fluctuations and trading volume of both tokens reflect the bearish sentiment in the altcoin market.

Summary: This week's popular meme coins Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have shown a significant downward trend, reflecting the current market's cautious sentiment towards such high-risk assets.

Part 2: Trading Bot Strategy Analysis

The grid trading strategy profits from buying and selling operations within a specific price range, taking advantage of small fluctuations, making it suitable for moderately volatile markets. The moving average strategy trades based on the golden cross and death cross signals of moving averages, carrying higher risk but performing well in major trend markets. The Martingale strategy tracks market trends by gradually increasing the stakes, offering considerable returns but also presenting high risks. The machine learning strategy uses algorithms to analyze historical data and predict future trends, demonstrating stability in moderately volatile markets. The exponential moving average strategy combines multiple moving average cycles, showing strong abilities in capturing both short-term and long-term trends.

Summary: This week's quantitative strategies have shown diversification, with different strategies performing differently under varying market volatilities, allowing investors to choose based on their own risk preferences.

6.4. Bollinger Band Trading Strategy Analysis

Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identify potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This analysis employs the following trading strategy:

• When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the upper band, take a selling action, with a position of 20%.
• When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the lower bound, make a buying action with a position of 20%.
• The initial principal is 100,000 USDT

According to this trading strategy, a backtest of the historical data of ETH from May 27, 2025, to June 27, 2025, yielded the following results:

• Final Yield: 12.37%
• Maximum Drawdown: 8.92%
• Annualized Volatility: 32.56%

Data Analysis:

1. During the backtesting period, the strategy achieved positive returns, but the yield was relatively low.
2. The maximum drawdown rate is within an acceptable range, and the risk is controllable.
3. The annualized volatility is relatively high, indicating that this strategy carries certain risks.

Advantages:

• The strategy is simple and easy to execute.
• Risk is controllable, with the maximum drawdown within an acceptable range.

Disadvantages:

• The yield is not ideal and fails to meet investors' expected returns.
• The annualized volatility is relatively high, and there are significant risks.

Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy performs reasonably well in risk control, but the return rate is low, making it difficult to attract investors. Further optimization and improvement are needed to enhance the strategy's profitability.