HashKey Trading Moment: Powell's 'dove' sound resonates with the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, BTC chip concentration rises, reaching the resistance level of $107,000

1. Market Observation

Keywords: BNB, ETH, Bitcoin

The macro environment is showing a positive turn. The news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has significantly eased geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite. The price of crude oil has fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and gold briefly fell below the $3300 mark. Against this backdrop, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent a key signal during his congressional testimony: while not explicitly ruling out a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting a more likely decision to wait until the September meeting to change policy direction. He admitted that if inflation pressures remain under control, a rate cut would come "sooner rather than later," but with the current strong economy, there is no need for hasty action. He also pointed out that tariff uncertainty is the main reason for delaying rate cuts. This statement was interpreted by the market as dovish, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, leading to a broad rally in US stocks - the Nasdaq 100 hit a historic high, the Dow soared 500 points in a single day, and US bond yields and the dollar both fell. It is worth noting that Powell reiterated the Fed's independence in response to pressure from Trump to cut rates, emphasizing that decisions are based solely on economic data. Observations from industry giants in the energy sector show that US shale oil producers are shifting from "increasing production to cushion oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may weaken traditional energy price volatility adjustment mechanisms.

In terms of regulation, Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey, stated that Coinbase is seeking approval from the US SEC to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, low thresholds, lower costs, and 24/7 trading. If approved, Coinbase will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blurring the boundaries between traditional brokerages and crypto platforms, challenging the position of traditional internet brokerages like Robinhood. In addition, after the new management team took office at the SEC, there has been a shift in the regulatory attitude towards the crypto industry. They not only dismissed lawsuits against multiple crypto companies but also established a crypto task force to develop digital asset regulations. Jeffrey Ding believes that the US may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading and providing investors with more diverse and flexible trading options.

BTC broke through $106,000 under macro bullish factors, but its performance was relatively restrained. The founder of 10x Research stated that the 13% increase in BTC since the beginning of the year contrasts with the inflow of over $63 billion, reflecting market caution towards structural changes. According to analyst Murphy's observation, the concentration of chips within a 5% range of Bit's spot price has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that once the concentration exceeds 15%, the market may experience significant volatility. From a technical analysis perspective, several technical analysts have given similar predictions for the short-term trend of BTC. EliZ suggested that the price may consolidate at the current level, with a potential upside to $110,000 if it breaks through $107,000, otherwise it may fall back below $102,000; AlphaBTC and Open4profit both believe that BTC may briefly test $107,000 before quickly falling back to test the liquidity in the $104,000 to $105,000 range.

On the Ethereum side, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha stated that there was a large-scale fund withdrawal from the Binance platform on June 23, with over 4000 BTC and 61000 ETH flowing out of the platform. This indicates that traders' sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Swissblock's analysis further points out that as funds rotate from BTC to Ethereum, ETH may experience a significant rise, with its profit-supply ratio much lower than BTC, showing potential for a rebound. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly also mentioned that ETH is rapidly approaching $2500, with a significant increase in buying interest and the appearance of a dragonfly doji as a reversal signal. However, Marcel Pechman presented a contrasting view, stating that ETH has been unable to break through $3000 for over 20 weeks, damaging market confidence. Additionally, facing fierce competition from public chains like Solana, it will be challenging to return to levels above $3000 in the short term. Finally, analyst Man of Bitcoin provided specific Fibonacci targets, believing that the upward targets for ETH are at $2475 and $2565, while support levels are around $2331 and $2155.

In the market, the interaction between Solana official and KOL Ansem's comment "solami" led to the emergence of Memecoin $solami, with a market value quickly rising to 12 million USD and then falling back to 5.3 million USD; $ACID, developed by the team under Alchemist AI Foundation, quickly reached a market value of 18 million USD with the concept of "cross-Web2 and Web3 intelligent agents", and it claims to have the involvement of former members of OpenAI, attracting follow-up funds with a mechanism of distributing 20% of the coin to holders. Meanwhile, $TECH reached the highest market value of 3.4 million USD, and currently has a market value of 1.45 million USD. It is reported that the meme "Technologia" originated from a video in October 2024, in which two Arab men excitedly shouted "Technologia" as the back seat of the car rose.

In addition, traditional financial institutions are accelerating their layout in the field of cryptocurrencies. Nano Labs, a US stock company, announced the acquisition of BNB through a $500 million convertible bond as a strategic reserve, aiming to hold 5%-10% of the circulating supply of BNB. This move drove the stock price to skyrocket by 150% in a single day. A breakthrough development in the Hong Kong market is Guotai Junan International obtaining a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese securities firm to offer mainstream coin trading services. This news stimulated its Hong Kong stock price to break through the highest intraday gain of 100%. It also led to its affiliated company Huamao shares briefly rising by over 8%.

2. Key Data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 25)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• BTC: $106,202 (rise of +13.61% since the beginning of the year), with a daily spot trading volume of $27.86 billion
• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (YTD -27.09%), with a daily spot trading volume of $15.253 billion
• Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, SEI, NEWT, BTC, ETH
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 1.0751
• Sector changes: AI fell 3.45%; NFT sector fell 2.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79735 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 187 million US dollars, of which BTC liquidation was 34.3663 million US dollars, ETH liquidation was 68.176 million US dollars, and SEI liquidation was 6.9476 million US dollars.
• BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper line (105782.52 US dollars), lower line (103687.82 US dollars)
• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2485.15 US dollars), lower channel line (2435.94 US dollars)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it is a medium to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly crosses the cost range in the short term, it is a consolidation or topping state.

3.ETF flow (as of June 24)

• BTCETF: +5.89 billion US dollars (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +7123.79 million US dollars

4. Today's Outlook

• coin安: H contracts and Alpha trading are scheduled to open at 17:30 and 17:00 on June 25th, respectively
• The Kroma L2 network will be closed on June 26, and $KRO needs to be migrated to Ethereum.
• coin will be launched on June 26th SAHARA AI (SAHARA)
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies on semi-annual Bit policy report before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. (June 25, 22:00)
• Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million token coins at 4 p.m. on June 25, accounting for 2.84% of the current circulation, worth about $10 million;
• AltLayer (ALT) will unlock about 240 million representative coins at 6:00 p.m. on June 25, with a proportion of 6.83% to the current circulation, worth about $6.7 million;
• IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 15.16 million representative coins at 8 a.m. on June 25, accounting for 0.39% of the current circulation, worth about $2.3 million;
• Velo (VELO) will unlock approximately 182 million representative coins at 8 a.m. on June 26, accounting for 2.47% of the current circulation, worth about $2.1 million;
• Blast (BLAST) will unlock approximately 10.5 billion representative coins at 10 p.m. on June 26, accounting for 34.98% of the current circulation, worth about $22.5 million;
• Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock about 2.15 million coins at 8 a.m. on June 26, accounting for approximately 2.13% of the current circulation, worth around $2.3 million;

Today's Top 500 Market Cap Gainers: NEM (XEM) rose by 59.74%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) rose by 42.31%, Pundi AI (PUNDIAI) rose by 21.51%, Maple Finance (SYRUP) rose by 18.45%, Apu Apustaja (APU) rose by 15.91%.

5. Hot News

• The 'Three Battles ETH 100% Win Rate Whale' once again increased its short position in ETH in the early morning, with the current position valued at $122 million.
• SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by $30.67 million to 12,207 ETH, bringing the total holdings to 188,478 coins
• Nano Labs announced a $500 million convertible note private placement for BNB strategic reserves, and Nano Labs' stock price rose by over 150%.
• Binance will launch the 25th HODLer airdrop project: Sahara AI (SAHARA)
• ProCap invests USD 387 million to purchase 3724 BTC
• The Texas state government will allocate 10 million US dollars to purchase BTC
• Trump calls on Powell again: rates should be cut by at least 2 to 3 percentage points
• Upbit will list Newton (NEWT) KRW, BTC, and USDT trading pairs
• GrayScale Space and Time (SXT) Trust is registered in Delaware
• Celestia Creation: With a reserve of over 100 million US dollars, enough to support operations for more than 6 years
• Suspected ConsenSys related address purchases 3704 ETH again, worth $8.91 million

This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trustworthy portal for encrypted asset law coins in Asia. It is committed to defining a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund security, and platform protection.