Is the Collapse of Dogecoin Far From Over? Analyst Reveals

Dogecoin continues to fall, and cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) warns that the worst may still be ahead. Citing a previous bearish pattern, Kevin emphasized over the weekend that Dogecoin's Head and Shoulders pattern—identified nearly two weeks ago—is rapidly approaching its "measured move" technical target. But he also made it clear that the potential for further bearishness has not yet materialized. Is the collapse of Dogecoin far from over? "I'm not saying we've been there yet," Kevin explained in the next post, "the orange circle indicates the area where the measured move may occur, with the target for the measured move precisely at fib .786 at .119." This level of $0.119 aligns with the broader convergence of technical supports that are quickly becoming important to the structure of DOGE. "The Head and Shoulders level that I pointed out on Dogecoin a few weeks ago has almost reached its measured move target range. Some daily indicators are also starting to enter stimulation levels. Keep a close watch along with BTC and USDT Dominance for further confirmation," he wrote.

Kevin also emphasized the importance of the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the (Exponential Moving Average )EMA(, along with the macro .382 Fibonacci retracement and the long-term bearish trend line. Together, these levels form the area that he describes as "must hold", specifically between $0.1434 and $0.1265. A continuous break below that area could confirm a macro bearish shift for the meme asset. What to watch for right now Looking further, Kevin sees Dogecoin's fate tied to Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market, which he describes as at its weakest in years. "So far, 2025 has been a more pessimistic year for altcoins than 2024 and 2023," he noted. "The worst year for altcoins since the bear market in 2022." The overwhelming power of Bitcoin's dominance is a major factor in that trend. Kevin argues that the dominance is not just a temporary increase. He writes that "New highs for BTC dominance are based on restrictive monetary policy and an uncertain geopolitical environment," referring to global macro conditions including the ongoing quantitative tightening )QT. He has long warned that without a change in central bank policy, any discussion of an "altcoin season" is indeed too early. "I have said since the end of 2023, beginning of 2024—when AI coin is running wild and everyone is saying it's #Altseason—that until QT ends and the rate finally falls, you will not see the true outperformance of altcoins. That still holds true."

His caution is not limited to Dogecoin. In previous posts, Kevin identified the main danger zones for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which he believes need to be reclaimed to prevent a general market decline. "As long as BTC cannot break the $106.8k level and shows real tracking on the 3D-1W timeframes, the market is really dangerous," he wrote. "Similarly, ETH cannot break the $2700-2800 level." For Dogecoin traders, the message is very clear. The fate of the meme coin depends not only on its own technical health but also on the broader macro and intermarket structure which remains fragile. As long as Bitcoin continues to struggle to hold above key breakout levels and U.S. monetary conditions remain tight, the chances of a deeper fall for Dogecoin are still high. Whether DOGE can stabilize above $0.1265 will be closely monitored by traders in the coming days and weeks. Losing that range, especially when combined with Bitcoin's recent weakness, could mark the beginning of a deeper and more painful phase for this once-beloved meme coin.