Recently, bettors on the Polymarket platform have significantly cooled their expectations that the United States may launch a second military strike against Iran by the end of this month. This change reflects a new understanding in the market regarding the potential easing of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

According to a contract on the Polymarket platform, the trading price for the "yes" option inquiring whether the United States will take another military action against Iran before June 30 has dropped from an initial 74% after the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities to the current 54%.

This notable decline seems to indicate that market participants are increasingly confident that both sides are seeking to reduce the likelihood of conflict. The United States' restrained attitude following the initial strike, along with Iran's relatively mild response, supports this view.

However, despite a slight easing in market sentiment, a probability of 54% still indicates that the situation remains tense. Analysts point out that diplomatic efforts in the coming weeks and public statements from both sides will be key factors in determining the direction of the situation.

At the same time, the changes in this gambling market have sparked discussions about the role of prediction markets in assessing geopolitical risks. Although these markets may provide interesting insights, experts warn that they should not be seen as authoritative predictions of complex international situations.

Overall, this change on Polymarket provides us with an interesting perspective on how market participants view the current U.S.-Iran relationship. However, real-world diplomatic and military decisions are often more complex and unpredictable than betting markets.